HUMA Committee Report

The Shortages

Canada’s overall economy is operating at full production capacity, with unemployment at the lowest level in three decades. In a recent report from the Bank of Canada, 51% of firms surveyed reported that they currently face labour shortages that will restrict their ability to meet demand.

Many analysts are predicting labour shortages will affect all regions and sectors of Canada by 2010. A recent study by the Canadian Federation of Independent Business reveals a growing long-term vacancy rate among Canada’s small businesses. It estimates that there were 233,000 positions in small- and medium-sized businesses unfilled for at least four months in 2005.

In some sectors shortages are pronounced in some parts of the country while surpluses are evident in others. It is therefore no surprise that managing both labour shortages and surpluses have emerged as a major concern for employers across Canada.

The current shortages stem from a combination of factors including an aging population and declining birth rates. The Canadian economy is evolving requiring higher skills and knowledge from workers. Productivity and competitiveness require a well trained workforce. In some cases individuals have responded and are extending their schooling. However many young people continue to leave school, ill prepared for today’s work force.

Impact of Shortages

The extent of the severity of the problem affecting both large and small employers is reflected in the following findings:

According to the Construction Sector Council, Construction Looking Forward 2006-2014; the new reality will be fewer workers and more work which threatens to limit economic growth, affecting all business cycles, provinces and industries. Canada’s construction industry will need to replace approximately 150,000 retiring workers between 2005 and 2014 (Construction Sector Council).

The Mining Industry Human Resources Council predicts that over the next ten years, industry growth coupled with looming waves of retirement will create a need for up to 81,000 people in the Canadian minerals and metals industry workforce.

The trucking industry requires approximately 37,000 new truck drivers a year over the next five years (Canadian Trucking Human Resources Council).

The tourism industry projects growth of 300,000 new jobs over the next decade but the lack of young new recruits to fill these jobs are converging to create unprecedented labour shortages.(Canadian Tourism Human Resource Council).

Growth in manufacturing will require up to 62,000 skilled workers in aircraft maintenance by 2016.

78% of employers in the installation, maintenance and repair of appliances and electronic sector have indicated recruitment of skilled employees is their main challenge. More than one-third of the current workforce is 55 or older. Twenty-five per cent of the current workforce plan to retire in the next 5 years. (Installation, Maintenance and Repair Sector Council).

The Motor Carrier Passenger Council estimates that the bus industry will be facing a critical shortage of skilled and qualified mechanics and drivers to replace the estimated 45% of employees who will be retiring in the next five to seven years.

It is estimated that close to 40% of existing police workforce will retire over the next five years. (Police Sector Council).

Almost one-half of employers in the automotive repair industry (48.1%) and 57% of employers in the motorcycle repair sector reported that a lack of qualified staff was a significant issue for their organization. (Canadian Automotive and Repair Council).

The biotechnology industry has identified a shortage of mangers with science and management competencies. (Biotechnology Human Resource Sector Council).

From 2001 to 2008 the plastics processing industry will add 28,500 more jobs while turnover will bring 25,000 new workers to the industry each year. (Canadian Plastics Sector Council).

The apparel sector in Canada is starting to grow again after having gone through a major restructuring where about half the jobs in the sector were lost between 2001 (104,000) and 2005 (62,000). The sector is transforming itself from a blue collar to white collar sector with close 5,000 new technicians’ jobs being required by mid 2007 and another 12,000 higher skilled production, technical and management jobs to be created over the next 5 to 7 years.

The Electricity Sector Council estimates that almost 40% of the current workforce will be eligible to retire by 2014. In some industry sectors (nuclear) or regions (British Columbia) the profile is worse with 40 % of the workforce approaching retirement. The industry will be challenged to replace those retirees with individuals of comparable and experience.

In Alberta there are more than $120 billion worth of capital works projects on the books, employers will need to fill 400,000 new jobs by 2010 and to date the Alberta government has identified where 300,000 workers will come from.

It is anticipated there will be a serious succession issue in the area of cultural management as a generation of senior cultural managers prepare to take retirement. Sixty-six per cent of employers in Canada reported having difficulty filling positions with particular difficulty in filling positions for engineers, drivers, mechanics, electricians and skilled trades. (Manpower, 2006).

Fifty thousand skilled metal tradespersons will be needed in the next five years. (Canadian Tooling and Machining Industry).

The Automotive Parts Manufacturers’ Association is projecting a 42% vacancy rate across Canada by 2007.

In the next 15 years the manufacturing sector will require an estimated 400,000 workers due to retirements. (Canadian Labour and Business Centre).

A 2005 study found that 62 of 76 major industrial associations are already having trouble finding the help they need. (Canada West Foundation).