HUMA Committee Report

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APPENDIX A: PROJECTED LABOUR SHORTAGES AND SURPLUSES ACCORDING TO THE CANADIAN OCCUPATIONAL PROJECTION SYSTEM

Tables 1, 2A, 3, 4 and 5 show employment in 2010 and the cumulative number of new job seekers and new job openings for the projection period stretching from 2011 to 2020, according to COPS. The variation between the two shows the extent of either the shortage (if the result is negative) or the surplus (if the result is positive). Of course, this shows only the variation between the number of new job openings and the number of new job seekers. If a shortage was already being felt when the projection period began, it is possible that a positive number merely indicates that the shortage is projected to decrease. The last column of the table shows whether the occupation was experiencing a surplus, a shortage or was in balance at the beginning of the projection period (2011). This COPS analysis is based on recent data on job growth, salary and variations in unemployment rate by occupation.[1]

Table 1 – Employment Levels (2010) and Projected Shortages or Surpluses,
2011 to 2020, Sciences, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics Occupations

	Employment Level (2010)	New Job Seekers (1)	New Job Openings (2)	Shortages (-) or Surpluses (+) (3) = (1) – (2)	Status at Start of Projection Period
Physical Science Professionals	34,995	20,824	13,708	7,116	Shortage
Life Science Professionals	24,081	10,875	10,441	434	Balance
Civil, Mechanical, Electrical and Chemical Engineers	129,154	71,768	60,436	11,332	Balance
Other Engineers	81,229	37,851	36,655	1,196	Shortage
Architects, Urban Planners and Land Surveyors	41,163	12,628	13,379	-751	Shortage
Mathematicians, Statisticians and Actuaries	8,791	3,138	2,910	228	Shortage
Technical Occupations in Physical Sciences	28,404	14,952	12,026	2,926	Surplus
Technical Occupations in Life Sciences	39,195	15,255	18,008	-2,753	Balance
Technical Occupations in Civil, Mechanical and Industrial Engineering	68,841	31,897	29,027	2,870	Balance
Technical Occupations in Electronics and Electrical Engineering	109,759	47,472	46,832	640	Balance
Technical Occupations in Architecture, Drafting, Surveying and Mapping	63,813	25,963	20,574	5,389	Balance
Other Technical Inspectors and Regulatory Officers	55,699	27,914	31,776	-3,862	Balance
Transportation Officers and Controllers	27,292	7,874	11,948	-4,074	Balance

Source: HRSDC, Canadian Occupational Projection System, Search Occupation Data and Imbalances Between Labour Demand and Supply - 2011-2020 (forthcoming).

Table 2A – Employment Levels (2010) and Projected Shortages or Surpluses,
2011 to 2020, Professionals in the Digital Occupations

Employment Level (2010)

New Job Seekers

(1)

New Job Openings

(2)

Shortages (-) or Surpluses (+)

(3) = (1) – (2)

Status at Start of Projection Period

Computer and Information Systems Professionals

372,787

210,662

152,835

57,827

Balance

Technical Occupations in Computer and Information Systems

119,034

61,005

49,381

11,624

Balance

Source: HRSDC, Canadian Occupational Projection System, Search Occupation Data and Imbalances Between Labour Demand and Supply - 2011-2020 (forthcoming).

Tables 2B and 2C show the results of analyses performed by the Information and Communications Technology Council. It identifies five labour market rankings, ranging from a severe shortage to an extreme surplus. However, in each of the occupations analyzed and for each region, only the three middle rankings are forecast for 2011 to 2016 (the categories “acute excess of supply over demand” and “acute excess of demand over supply” are not predicted for any occupation). The results for professionals are presented in Table 2B and for technicians and technologists in Table 2C. See the legend to identify which colour is associated with which occupation.

Table 2B – Projected Surpluses, Balances and Shortages, by Occupation
and Region for Professionals in the Digital Occupations, 2011–2016

		Atlantic		Quebec	Ontario		Man. / Sask.		Alberta	B.C.
Computer and information systems managers	2011
	2012
	2013
	2014
	2015
	2016
Telecommunication carriers managers	2011
	2012
	2013
	2014
	2015
	2016
Electrical and electronics engineers	2011
	2012
	2013
	2014
	2015
	2016
Computer engineers (except software engineers)	2011
	2012
	2013
	2014
	2015
	2016
Information systems analysts and consultants	2011
	2012
	2013
	2014
	2015
	2016
Database analysts and data administrators	2011
	2012
	2013
	2014
	2015
	2016
Software engineers and designers	2011
	2012
	2013
	2014
	2015
	2016
Computer programmers and interactive media developers	2011
	2012
	2013
	2014
	2015
	2016
Web designers and developers	2011
	2012
	2013
	2014
	2015
	2016

Legend:			Pervasive surplus			Balance		Pervasive shortage

Source: Table taken from: Information and Communications Technology Council, Outlook for Human Resources in the ICT Labour Market, 2011–2016, March 2011.

Table 2C – Projected Surpluses, Balances and Shortages, by Occupation and Region for Technicians and Technologists in the Digital Occupations, 2011–2016

		Atlantic	Quebec	Ontario	Man. / Sask.	Alberta	B.C.
Electrical and electronics engineering technologists and technicians	2011
	2012
	2013
	2014
	2015
	2016
Computer network technicians	2011
	2012
	2013
	2014
	2015
	2016
User support technicians	2011
	2012
	2013
	2014
	2015
	2016
Systems testing technicians	2011
	2012
	2013
	2014
	2015
	2016
Broadcast technicians	2011
	2012
	2013
	2014
	2015
	2016

Legend:		Pervasive surplus		Balance		Pervasive shortage

Source: Table taken from: Information and Communications Technology Council, Outlook for Human Resources in the ICT Labour Market, 2011–2016, March 2011.

Table 3 – Employment Levels (2010) and Projected Shortages or Surpluses,
2011 to 2020, Health Occupations

	Employment Level (2010)	New Job Seekers (1)	New Job Openings (2)	Shortages (-) or Surpluses (+) (3) = (1) – (2)	Status at Start of Projection Period
Physicians, Dentists and Veterinarians	101,976	46,566	57,591	-11,025	Shortage
Optometrists and Chiropractors	15,653	7,350	7,331	19	Shortage
Pharmacists, Dietitians and Nutritionists	33,288	15,098	13,093	2,005	Balance
Therapy and Assessment Professionals	48,965	23,869	22,215	1,654	Shortage
Nurse Supervisors and Registered Nurses	273,063	128,671	161,979	-33,308	Shortage
Medical Technologists and Technicians	88,825	41,321	40,302	1,019	Shortage
Technical Occupations in Dental Health Care	28,965	9,664	10,300	-636	Balance
Other Technical Occupations in Health Care	124,687	56,445	62,321	-5,876	Balance
Assisting Occupations in Support of Health Services	316,207	158,108	165,014	-6,906	Shortage

Source: HRSDC, Canadian Occupational Projection System, Search Occupation Data and Imbalances Between Labour Demand and Supply - 2011-2020 (forthcoming).

Table 4 – Employment Levels (2010) and Projected Shortages or Surpluses,
2011 to 2020, Skilled Trades

	Employment Level (2010)	New Job Seekers (1)	New Job Openings (2)	Shortages (-) or Surpluses (+) (3) = (1) – (2)	Status at Start of Projection Period
Chefs and Cooks	194,893	94,613	77,627	16,986	Surplus
Butchers and Bakers	70,447	35,389	26,396	8,993	Balance
Underground Miners, Oil and Gas Drillers and Related Workers	42,234	22,572	22,969	-397	Balance
Logging Machinery Operators	8,205	1,763	2,949	-1,186	Surplus
Machinists	52,117	16,884	17,917	-1,033	Surplus
Electrical Trades	172,673	71,450	87,924	-16,474	Balance
Plumbers, Pipefitters and Gas Fitters	71,531	31,687	22,679	9,008	Balance
Metal Trades	123,305	52,750	46,727	6,023	Surplus
Carpenters and Cabinetmakers	150,716	63,724	42,048	21,676	Surplus
Masonry and Plastering Trades	69,813	29,054	23,383	5,671	Surplus
Other Construction Trades	95,610	49,819	32,664	17,155	Balance
Machinery and Transportation Equipment Mechanics (Except Motor Vehicle)	177,513	75,686	77,587	-1,901	Balance
Automotive Service Technicians	147,480	36,660	40,842	-4,182	Balance
Other Mechanics	30,601	8,712	10,304	-1,592	Balance
Upholsterers, Tailors, Shoe Repairers and Jewellers	27,556	4,004	12,161	-8,157	Surplus
Stationary Engineers and Power Station and System Operators	27,236	8,111	11,310	-3,199	Balance
Train Crew Operating Occupations	10,129	3,212	2,345	867	Surplus
Crane Operators, Drillers and Blasters	16,357	6,702	7,788	-1,086	Balance
Printing Press Operators and Other Trades	36,766	10,357	13,905	-3,548	Surplus

Source: HRSDC, Canadian Occupational Projection System, Search Occupation Data and Imbalances Between Labour Demand and Supply - 2011-2020 (forthcoming).

Table 5 – Employment Levels (2010) and Projected Shortages or Surpluses,
2011 to 2020, Low-skilled Occupations in the
Service, Agricultural and Aquaculture Industries

	Employment Level (2010)	New Job Seekers (1)	New Job Openings (2)	Shortages (-) or Surpluses (+) (3) = (1) – (2)	Status at Start of Projection Period
Cashiers	233,364	63,402	71,048	-7,646	Surplus
Other Sales Occupations	165,296	44,604	64,775	-20,171	Surplus
Food Counter Attendants and Kitchen Helpers	202,550	60,582	56,111	4,471	Surplus
Security Guards	90,832	34,194	44,122	-9,928	Surplus
Cleaners	404,200	121,590	174,300	-52,710	Surplus
Other Occupations in Travel, Accommodation, Amusement and Recreation	28,365	5,957	9,760	-3,803	Surplus
Other Elemental Service Occupations	45,738	13,934	18,538	-4,604	Surplus
Sales Representatives, Wholesale Trade	258,859	80,896	102,234	-21,338	Balance
Retail Salespersons and Sales Clerks	428,527	144,948	131,282	13,666	Surplus
Occupations in Travel and Accommodation	65,834	16,789	15,300	1,489	Surplus
Tour and Recreational Guides and Casino Occupations	15,600	8,368	5,866	2,502	Surplus
Occupations in Food and Beverage Service	190,572	72,972	66,861	6,111	Surplus
Other Occupations in Protective Service	40,127	12,755	10,786	1,969	Shortage
Childcare and Home Support Workers	201,154	75,782	81,696	-5,914	Balance
Other Occupations in Personal Service	77,016	38,997	34,968	4,029	Balance
Agriculture and Horticulture Workers	67,590	28,709	14,459	14,250	Surplus
Other Fishing and Trapping Occupations	4,187	2,416	1,165	1,251	Surplus

Source: HRSDC, Canadian Occupational Projection System, Search Occupation Data and Imbalances Between Labour Demand and Supply - 2011-2020 (forthcoming).

[1] HRSDC, Canadian Occupational Projection System, Imbalances Between Labour Demand and Supply — 2011-2020 (forthcoming).