:
I call this meeting to order.
Welcome to meeting number 103 of the House of Commons Standing Committee on Natural Resources.
Pursuant to Standing Order 108(2) and the motion adopted by the committee on Thursday, June 6, 2024, the committee is commencing its study of the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion.
Before we begin, I would ask all in-person participants to read the guidelines written on the updated cards on the table. These measures are in place to help prevent audio and feedback incidents and to protect the health and safety of all participants, including the interpreters. You will also notice the QR code on the card, which links to a short awareness video.
Today's meeting is taking place in a hybrid format. All witnesses have completed the required connection tests in advance of the meeting.
I would like to remind participants of the following points.
Please wait until I recognize you by name before speaking. All comments should be addressed through the chair.
Members, please raise your hand if you wish to speak, whether participating in person or via Zoom. The clerk and I will manage the speaking order as best we can.
I would also like to welcome Aimée Belmore, our analyst, who is replacing Sarah Dodsworth.
Welcome.
I also will be using these two cards: The yellow is a 30-second warning, and a red one means the time is up. I'll try not to interrupt you mid-sentence.
Now I would like to welcome our witnesses who are with us for the first hour today. From Environmental Defence Canada, we have Julia Levin, senior climate and energy program manager, by video conference, and from the Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer, Yves Giroux, Parliamentary Budget Officer, and Jason Stanton, adviser and analyst.
Up to five minutes will be given for opening remarks, after which we will proceed with rounds of questions.
Thank you to the entire committee for the invitation to appear before you as part of this study on the Trans Mountain expansion project.
I've worked at Environmental Defence for the last five years and have been tracking the TMX project over this time. My comments will touch on the climate and environmental impacts of the project; the amount of public financial support that has already been wasted, with more at stake; the importance of not off-loading this project and all of its financial risks onto indigenous communities; and the connection to petrochemical and plastic production in China.
The expanded Trans Mountain pipeline has the potential to deliver an additional 590,000 barrels of oil per day. Each barrel of oil we export through TMX results in additional carbon in the atmosphere, which is contributing to the unnatural wildfires, floods and droughts being experienced by so many across Canada, including the fire that burned down much of Jasper.
Producing and burning 600,000 barrels of oil would result in 84 million tonnes of carbon dioxide each year. That's the equivalent of driving around 20 million cars or running 22 coal plants. It's more than the yearly emissions of Quebec.
According to the Government of Canada's own social cost of carbon calculations, which calculates all of the costs of carbon pollution such as costs on health care, property damage and decreased agricultural productivity, the cost of that much carbon pollution would be over $20 billion a year.
The TMX expansion has already led to an increase in oil production in Alberta. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has been very clear that even existing levels of fossil fuel production will cause us to exceed 1.5°C of warming, beyond which we know the impacts of the climate crisis will become catastrophic and irreversible. Growing production of fossil fuels in a climate crisis is irresponsible to present and future generations.
That increased production also comes with environmental and social impacts, including the clearing of the boreal forest, the infringement of indigenous treaty and inherent rights and the increased health risks to first nations downstream of that production, something the federal government has recently recognized with its new study into those health impacts.
On the west coast, Vancouver tanker traffic has risen tenfold since exports started, putting endangered orca whales at risk of extinction and impacting salmon levels, which first nations communities in the area rely on. Spills, which are all too often occurrences with current pipelines, would endanger local sources of drinking water along the route and waters along the coast.
I'd like to note the link between the pipeline and plastic production in China, which contributes to global overproduction of this dangerous pollutant, which is filling our oceans, air, water, food sources and human bodies. In fact, a substantial amount of the oil exported to date has been bought by Rongsheng Petrochemical for plastics production.
Then, of course, there are the financial implications. This project has involved a huge amount of public money, an enormous fossil fuel subsidy. The federal government has provided over $35 billion in financing for TMX. That's money that taxpayers are on the hook for. The government could end up writing off most of the debt to make the pipeline appear commercially viable, which means taxpayers will have paid for the lion's share of the pipeline.
In fact, according to an analysis by TD Securities in 2018, the expansion project ceased to be viable when the project's costs exceeded $11 billion, and now they're three times that. Even if the Canadian government finds a buyer for the pipeline, it will not receive a price that covers the project costs. Current estimates are that the government would need to write off around $17 billion to $20 billion.
An eventual sale rests, in part, on the decisions around tolls—the amount the shippers are paying to use the pipeline—which are currently set at a rate below the marketplace costs of transporting the oil, given that they were based on earlier and much lower construction estimates.
Given how much the cost of building and operating the pipeline has ballooned, the tolls need to rise significantly to cover the project's full operating and capital costs. However, oil and gas companies are fighting tooth and nail against increased tolls. They don't want to pay more. They want taxpayers to pay. A decision will be made in 2025, with massive impacts on the financials of the project.
Oil companies, not taxpayers, should be paying for the pipeline of which they will be the only beneficiaries. This means the toll rate should be roughly doubled to $22 a barrel. Every penny that oil and gas companies reduce the tolls by will be paid for by the Canadian public.
The reason that this boondoggle has gone ahead is for fossil fuel companies to get a higher price for their product; it's to line the pockets of already incredibly wealthy oil executives. CNRL, Cenovus, Imperial, Suncor and MEG Energy are the only winners, while the rest of us pay the price.
Many of these companies are members of the Pathways Alliance and CAPP, which underlines the necessity of having both of these associations testify before this committee.
On a final note, it's very important that this project is not downloaded onto indigenous communities in the name of so-called economic reconciliation. TMX has massive environmental and financial liabilities, as we've explored. Furthermore, given the accelerating pace of the energy transition, this project is likely to become a stranded asset well before the end of its life. Shifting these liabilities from the public or private sectors to indigenous communities is just another form of colonial exploitation.
I'm done. I look forward to any questions.
:
Good morning, Mr. Chair, vice-chairs and members of the committee.
Thank you for the invitation to appear before you today. We are pleased to be here as part of your study on the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion, specifically to discuss our reports published on this topic.
With me today I have Jason Stanton, advisor and analyst at my office.
Consistent with the Parliamentary Budget Officer’s mandate to provide independent, non-partisan analysis to Parliament, my office has released three reports assessing the Government of Canada’s 2018 decision to acquire, expand, operate and eventually divest of the Trans Mountain pipeline system. The most recent report was published on June 22, 2022. It provided an updated financial valuation of the purchased assets and estimates to the valuation’s sensitivity to several key factors.
At the time of the last report, in 2022, the construction budget for the Trans Mountain expansion project was $21.4 billion, with an anticipated completion date in late 2023. Our assessment was limited to examining the direct financial cost of the pipeline expansion; any other economic costs or benefits associated with the pipeline were not included.
[English]
Based on our assumptions at that time, we found that the government's 2018 decision to acquire, expand, operate and eventually divest of the Trans Mountain assets would result in a negative net present value of $0.6 billion. We also conducted a sensitivity analysis to illustrate how the value of the Trans Mountain pipeline system would be impacted by changes to certain key assumptions, including the in-service date, construction costs, pipeline utilization, future service and tolling frameworks, and discount rates.
Since we published our last report, there have been significant developments to the Trans Mountain pipeline system. Notably, there's the completion of the Trans Mountain expansion pipeline, with a commercial commencement date of May 1, 2024, and the total costs for the expansion project having increased to over $34 billion.
At a request of this committee, we have undertaken work to update our analysis. In June, we sent an information request to the to obtain the most recent comprehensive data available for the Trans Mountain pipeline system. We received all of the requested information, although it is confidential for commercial reasons. We are currently working on the analysis and plan to release our report late next month.
Jason and I would be pleased to respond to any questions you may have regarding our analysis of the Trans Mountain pipeline system or other PBO work.
Thank you, Mr. Chair.
Thank you to all the witnesses for being here today.
It is a pleasure to be back with you as we start this session. I look forward to asking the House of Commons to vote for non-confidence in this government so that Canadians can rescue our country and bring home affordable power and fuel home heating for Canadians and safe communities, after a carbon tax election.
Thank you, Monsieur Giroux and Mr. Stanton, for your presence here today. It's a bit like Groundhog Day, as a person who has been elected since 2015 and has worked in many ways on this particular issue.
To be clear, Conservatives always opposed the government's purchase of the Trans Mountain expansion. Our view was that the federal government had to give legal and political certainty in order for the private sector proponent to be able to complete its federally approved project in federal jurisdiction on budget and on time. As you know, it would have been 340% less and in service by 2019.
This is yet another example, and perhaps the most important, of the destruction and damage to the Canadian economy and confidence in Canada as a place to get big projects built after nine years of the anti-energy NDP-Liberal government. Of course, you probably couldn't comment on that.
Given the extensive work that you aim to do, could I ask you right off the bat if you'd be willing to come back to this committee after you table your next report?
Thank you for being here, Mr. Giroux.
I want to start by putting things in perspective.
In 2018, the government bought the pipeline for $4.5 billion. According to Kinder Morgan's analysis of the pipeline expansion, it would cost $7.4 billion. In 2020, the value of the expansion was already estimated at $12.6 billion. In 2022, it was estimated at $21.4 billion, in 2023, at $30 billion, and in 2024, the final cost is estimated at $34 billion.
You have already appeared before this committee to say that we should probably dismiss the government's scenario where profits from the pipeline would be invested in clean energy projects.
I would like to draw your attention to something quite simple. In its 2023 budget, the government presented what it calls “a bold grand plan for the energy transition”, worth $40 billion, which would extend to 2035. That $40 billion would be used not only for clean electricity, but also for carbon capture and storage projects, which must benefit the oil and gas sector.
I see that you've put a price on the analysis you've done on carbon. If I look at all of this from the outside, I have to come to the conclusion that the government has spent a lot of resources on oil and gas projects and that, conversely, we are going to miss the target when it comes to clean energy projects.
Would you say my analysis is coherent?
:
Your analysis seems quite coherent.
On the one hand, a pipeline was purchased and the adventure continued with an expansion of that pipeline being built, with the total cost likely to exceed $34 billion.
On the other hand, the various tax credits that have been announced in recent budgets will amount to tens of billions of dollars. I don't have the exact figures, but we seem to be getting close to the same amounts.
The only caveat I would put to that analysis is that the government could decide to sell the Trans Mountain pipeline and its expansion and presumably reap the benefits of that sale. Will those benefits be more or less than the cost of acquisition and expansion? We think they're probably going to be less, so we would suffer a loss. However, the purchase and expansion costs must also be considered in relation to the profit from the sale, if there is a sale, at some point.
Mr. Giroux, I would like to hear your thoughts, as I am wondering how to frame the government's action when it comes to the pipeline. You'll understand what I'm saying.
The federal government provides the oil and gas sector with a huge amount of support. It's even hard to distinguish between efficient and inefficient subsidies. I think even the government doesn't want to define what it means by an inefficient subsidy to the oil sector.
When I see the purchase of the pipeline and the staggering costs associated with it, the infamous $34 billion, I can't help but think that Kinder Morgan didn't want to make that investment in this infrastructure, which is essential for the oil and gas sector, because it probably didn't think it was profitable.
If we put all that together, can we not conclude that this $34 billion ultimately supports the oil and gas sector? Would you agree with that?
I'd like to get a response from Ms. Levin. It seems that the Liberal government's climate plan is kind of like the “drinking your way to sobriety” school. They invested $34 billion in massively increasing oil production, while saying that somehow they were going to magically lower emissions.
The Canada Energy Regulator report showed that, with the way the Liberal government plan was, we'll basically be producing the same amount of oil in 2050 as we are today. Then got upset and made them rewrite it. Then, they came in with a lower number, with the so-called unicorn and rainbow scenario, which included a several-thousandfold increase in direct air carbon capture. I had to look up “direct air carbon capture”. It was first identified 25 years ago and it's never been used, but, oh, there's a several-thousandfold increase.
What we have in the real world are massive increases now, thanks to TMX, in the Alberta tar sands.
Ms. Levin, what are the impacts of that massive increase—
:
Thank you for that question.
The entire life-cycle emissions from that many barrels of oil, if they're all combusted, is 84 million tonnes each year. Again, that is an enormous amount of emissions. It's more than the yearly emissions of Quebec from one project. Those are the emissions from the oil that's exported when it's burned.
However, the upstream emissions from producing that, from the expanded oil production, will also be significant. I don't have the exact numbers here, but certainly, if Canada's emissions cap is to have rigour, there is no room for expanded production.
We know that the technologies that companies are often toting, including direct air capture and carbon capture and storage, are proven to be ineffective. It's expensive failure after expensive failure. They're dangerous for communities. There was a leak of an injection well in the United States, in the first permanent storage injection well, just last week, which threatened drinking water. That is the reality of carbon-capture projects.
:
I call this meeting back to order.
We are resuming meeting number 103 of the House of Commons Standing Committee on Natural Resources. Pursuant to Standing Order 108(2) and the motion adopted by the committee on Thursday, June 6, 2024, the committee is commencing its study of the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion.
I would now like to welcome our witnesses for the second hour. From the Canada Energy Regulator, we have Tracy Sletto, chief executive officer; Geneviève Carr, executive vice-president, transparency and strategic engagement; and Chris Loewen, executive vice-president, regulatory.
Welcome. You have five minutes for your opening statement.
Good morning. My name is Tracy Sletto, and I am the president and CEO of the Canada Energy Regulator, the CER.
I am joined by Genevieve Carr, a doctor of biology and executive vice-president of transparency and strategic engagement, as well as Chris Loewen, executive vice-president of regulatory.
[English]
I want to begin by acknowledging that I am on the unceded ancestral and traditional territory of the Algonquin Anishinabe nation, who have lived on and cared for the land now known as Ottawa since time immemorial.
[Translation]
Thank you for the opportunity to speak to you about the CER's work as part of your study on the Trans Mountain expansion project.
[English]
I will provide a brief overview of the CER's mandate, how we assess energy infrastructure projects like TMX, the project's current regulatory status and our continued role alongside the indigenous advisory and monitoring committee.
The CER's mandate is clear: Regulate energy infrastructure in a way that prevents harm and ensures the safe, reliable, competitive and environmentally sustainable delivery of energy to Canada and the world. We oversee approximately 71,000 kilometres of federally regulated pipelines and 1,500 kilometres of power lines.
[Translation]
We play an important economic role with respect to pipeline duties and tariffs, as well as energy exports.
The CER also has a mandate to provide energy information. So we provide data and analysis that informs energy-related decision-making and dialogue in Canada. Our suite of energy futures reports explores various scenarios that Canadians could face in the long term in a net-zero world.
[English]
When the commission of the CER makes a recommendation as to whether a certificate for a pipeline should be issued by the Governor in Council, it must consider several factors: safety, economic, environmental and social. This was true in the case of TMX.
TMX is a particularly large and complex project, and the CER strived at all times to ensure that it demonstrated a commitment to strong, responsive and inclusive regulatory practices and processes. The Governor in Council approved the project in June 2019, subject to 156 legally binding conditions in addition to the regulatory requirements that apply to all companies regulated by the CER. Since then, we have been focused on ensuring that the project was constructed safely and verifying company compliance with regulatory requirements.
The commission of the CER issued the final authorization for TMX to operate on April 30, 2024. This enabled the company to begin transporting product in the new line from its Edmonton terminal to its Westridge marine terminal.
[Translation]
Our role does not stop now that the construction has been completed. Because we will act as a regulator throughout the life cycle of the facility, we will continue to ensure that the company complies with the conditions, the regulations, the codes and the standards that are set.
[English]
The CER is also an economic regulator that oversees pipeline tolls. Tolls are the fees a pipeline company charges its customers to ship products such as oil on its pipeline. A company can only charge tolls that have been filed with the CER.
The commission approved preliminary interim tolls for the expanded Trans Mountain pipeline system in November 2023. The next step for the commission is the final interim tolls hearing, which will continue throughout 2024 into 2025 and include a detailed cost review of the project.
[Translation]
I would like to take this opportunity to highlight another key element of regulatory oversight for the Trans Mountain project. When the Government of Canada approved the project in 2016, it also committed to establishing an indigenous advisory and monitoring committee for the project.
[English]
The IAMC includes indigenous representatives selected from among the 129 communities impacted by the project. Alongside the CER and five other federal government departments, the IAMC developed innovative approaches to indigenous monitoring, project notification, the protection of sites of indigenous significance, and the new emergency management processes and protocols. Several of these improvements have since been incorporated into CER practices and regulatory requirements that apply to all companies. The CER will continue working with the IAMC throughout the pipeline's life cycle.
Looking forward, the CER is committed to continual improvement as a national energy regulator, with an eye to building and maintaining trust and confidence in its work, advancing reconciliation, implementing the United Nations Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples, enhancing Canada's global competitiveness through leadership in regulatory innovation and best practices, and preparing for the energy future.
[Translation]
I want to thank you again for the opportunity to speak to you about our work at the Canada Energy Regulator and our role with respect to the Trans Mountain project.
I look forward to your questions.
Thank you.
:
Thank you. We will follow up on that request.
There are currently 53 projects stuck in some way in federal review. Ms. Sletto, you were vice-president for five years at the Canada Energy Regulator—thank you for your service—and you have been the CEO since December 2023. Of course, the Canada Energy Regulator is fundamental and critical to every single Canadian, given the scope of its work.
There are 53 projects stuck in approval on which there have been no decisions. Six hundred people work for the Canada Energy Regulator, as you have just confirmed. What's happened is a $5-trillion net outflow of investment from Canada into the United States every single year since 2015 and since the changes—and because of this government. It's a direct reversal. It's related to natural resources projects' being abandoned or killed in Canada because the private sector can't see its way through the regulatory process and doesn't have a government that will back it on the back end. I mean, TMX was originally approved in 2016, and the court decision was that the Liberals failed in their indigenous consultation on TMX. Therefore, I'm glad to hear that you have the indigenous advisory group.
I guess I'm just asking if you think that sounds like a rate of success for the performance of the regulator.
:
Okay, that's great, and on that note, I have some questions. When you first denied the pipeline variance for the proponent, what changed to make you later approve it since that was one of the delays that drove up costs?
Second, you made 16 recommendations on TMX that fell outside of the scope of the CER's regulatory mandate. Your organization said that itself. We have a body of 600 people with 53 projects on hold in the most important sector of the Canadian economy. Those 600 people can't get through the processes, but somehow you made 16 recommendations on TMX that added to the delay and were outside of the regulatory scope. That's an additional question.
My other question is this: Since the Supreme Court indicted this government's failures on Bill —which, by the way, the Conservative opposition warned of for every single issue the Supreme Court ruled on, and then the government just stuck some of its tweaking legislation into its budget implementation bill—how has that impacted your work at the Canada Energy Regulator, the clear vacuum for your regulatory parameters since the Supreme Court of Canada decision?
What kind of guidance or insight has the government given you about your organization's scope and mandate as a result of its legislative changes to its mistakes in Bill , which the Supreme Court of Canada and all 10 provincial and territorial leaders have indicted and which is the cornerstone of regulatory assessment for the most important sector in the Canadian economy for affordable lives for all Canadians in every community?
[English]
Thank you for being here and for taking the time to answer our questions.
My line of questioning is going to revolve around what's important for my community of Vaudreuil—Soulanges. There are others in this room who will speak to the economic benefits, particularly for Alberta and British Columbia, from the construction of the pipeline or the expansion. There will be those who will speak to indigenous partnerships and the share of the roughly $30 billion that was provided to indigenous communities and the indigenous-led businesses that have benefited from it.
My line of questioning is more so around the environment and the protection of the environment, as well as security.
I'll start off with the environment. We know that, if you're going to transport oil, the most efficient way to do it is by pipeline as opposed to rail. The stats show it's two times safer, which I'll get to in a second, but also, over long distances, much more efficient. Therefore, we're going to see some significant savings there with regard to GHG emissions.
In addition to that, all of the emissions that are projected to be created by this pipeline are going to be and have already been captured in Canada's climate plan, so these aren't a kind of external.... These are already factored in. That's the good news, and I've shared that with my constituents.
The question I have for you is this: Above and beyond the fact that we're doing it in the most environmentally sustainable way in terms of GHGs and the fact that it's already factored into Canada's emissions target and plan, what other key tools have been put in place to ensure this protects the environment in the best way possible?
:
Thank you very much for that question.
There are several aspects that I might highlight, but there is one in particular that I might want to shine a light on in the context of both this project and the recent projects that have been regulated by the CER. Certainly, the considerations around social, economic and environmental factors are a key part of any review that the CER will undertake in its project reviews. With its focus on life-cycle oversight, those same considerations remain true in our entire regulatory framework.
One element of the Trans Mountain project that I will highlight specifically—and I mentioned it in my opening remarks—is a quite innovative approach in the context of working with indigenous peoples in a different way. I mentioned the IAMC and, in the context of Trans Mountain, working in partnership with those impacted communities along the route.
I mention this because it actually has benefited our regulatory framework across Canada and is really with an eye to having those partnerships able to identify and take action on areas of concern that would have impacts not only on the environment but also in terms of cultural impacts, heritage resources and real implications in the long term of how these natural resources and infrastructure projects operate. I would say that's an innovative feature, but it's something that we've continued to employ—not only in the Trans Mountain context. We have adopted those best practices and are now incorporating them into our regulatory framework, which would apply to the companies that we regulate across the country.
Thank you very much for the question, Mr. Schiefke.
The degree of regulatory oversight is proportional to a project's complexity and scale, and this is a very complex and very large project. It's perhaps the largest in Canadian history, but it's definitely the largest for the CER.
The larger and more multi-faceted projects are, the more monitoring and guidance we provide in order to make sure that the conditions for the project are followed. We also use a series of enforcement tools to ensure that companies are following the regulations and standards set by the CER. These include everything from administrative monetary penalties to condition compliance and inspection officer orders.
Safety is always our top priority, and it includes all workers and contractors on job sites. There were somewhere in the neighbourhood of 30,000 workers on this project over its lifespan, which is quite a huge achievement. The safety record, from the CER's perspective was one that.... We always think we can do better, but we think in this case it was very good.
Also, we confidently enforce some of the strictest safety and environmental standards in the world.
I'll leave it at that.
It's a pleasure to be here. We need to come to the Standing Committee on Natural Resources from time to time to see to what extent, from an energy and environmental perspective, a Liberal is a Conservative.
What my Liberal colleague just said is absolutely scandalous, in that the Liberals' objective is not to meet their greenhouse gas emissions targets, but rather to do as the Conservatives did and export as much oil as possible. The argument we are hearing is that pipelines will be built because it is a safer way to transport oil than a train. That is the argument my colleague just used when he asked the people from the Canada Energy Regulator whether the pipeline is less dangerous than a train to transport tonnes of oil. That is a completely dishonest question from my colleague, who is an honest person.
So I'm going to ask you this: Wouldn't it be safer, if we had energy security, to transport and export less oil?
:
I'm going to interrupt you, if I may. It's a bad habit of mine.
So I understand that the mandate of the Energy Regulator is, among other things, to ensure the safety of facilities, but that you are unable to tell me whether, by transporting less oil, there is less risk of accidents. I have my answer: I understand that you are not allowed to give me the answer. It's obvious. What I wanted to show was the dishonesty of my Liberal colleague's question, which put you in an impossible situation. You shouldn't do that to your guests.
I understand that your role is to ensure that, once a facility is built, the energy is transported safely. Transportation includes aspects that are interprovincial in nature, and that concern safety and the national interest.
Would it be fair to say that you could have a mandate to ensure that the dirtiest oil in the world is transported in as environmentally responsible a manner as possible? Is it possible that this is your mandate?
:
Perfect. Thank you, Chair.
This is all, of course, part of the tangled web we weave when the Liberals first deceive, as they have on TMX and on energy. They've been speaking out of both sides of their mouths. They've been eating the NDP and the Green voters for lunch. That's why you've seen this change.
Of course, they've implemented the world's first oil and gas emissions cap, which is designed to stop production and to keep Canadian resources in the ground. Make no mistake, Conservatives support expanding the production and export of Canadian natural resources for powerful paycheques for our people and to help lower emissions globally.
To get back to these topics that we were touching on earlier, it turns out that we found out that less than a third of the projects proposed since November 2015 have been approved by the Canada Energy Regulator. We should probably have follow-up conversations about whether or not that can reasonably be conceived of by Canadians as a successful track record. It's important to every single Canadian and every single community—especially indigenous people who are most impacted by employment provided by natural resources, and oil and gas development in particular.
If we could just get back to the pipeline variance decision that was part of my other question, you know, of course, that a year ago the CER denied that application. That would have sped up completion of the project by two months and brought approximately $400 billion in additional revenue. Then the request was approved in January 2024.
This sort of uncertainty is, of course, a death knell for getting big projects built and sends negative signals to private sector investors. The mess we're in is, of course, that the government didn't take action when it should have and then unnecessarily bought this thing.
Can you explain what changed in terms of your ultimate decision since last year—your denial that further delayed the project?
:
Thank you very much for that question.
First, in the context of the decision that was made on this project specifically, those economic considerations would certainly have factored into the public interest decision that was made by the Governor in Council with respect to this project. You're also speaking to that broader market analysis and economic information.
There are two aspects to that question that I might highlight.
One would be more of a policy mandate question, I think, in terms of the government's economic approach.
The other I'll mention in terms of our Canada Energy Regulator mandate around energy information and market supply. You speak about our snapshots, which are a key part of our energy information mandate. We produce not only flagship reports like the energy futures report but also things like snapshots or those provincial and territorial profiles, some of which were released just last week. On that broader economic front, and certainly with an eye to forecasting and a net-zero lens, we released our first-ever net-zero modelling in the energy futures 2023 report last year, and it speaks to some of those broad economic impacts I think you're speaking about.
I wouldn't be in a position to speak specifically about the kinds of things you're referencing in the context of the direct lines of this project, but certainly we have plenty of information available around those broad economic forecasting and market impacts that we expect to occur, and specifically in the context of a net-zero future. We'd be pleased to provide that information as a follow-up.
I think that likely in such a context, we would rely on the information in those market snapshots, which are publicly available, including some of the work around the association between the outputs and the broader energy market in Canada and certainly in the context of economic opportunities.
Again I might speak to our role. With an energy information mandate, our role is to provide that analysis and that modelling, but we don't have a policy leadership role. As a regulator, we have a clear role in terms of that safety mandate and that economic regulatory mandate.
I might look to colleagues at Natural Resources Canada to speak more about the broader economic policy you're speaking about.
:
First, I would like to thank Mr. Garon for sharing his time with me. That's kind of you.
[English]
Chair, just to summarize, back in 2016, the National Energy Board somehow found that this 1,150-kilometre pipeline was in Canada's public interest, despite a long history, with 85 spills, leading up to that point. This was appealed 17 times, including by many first nations.
Since then, the government decided to buy the pipeline days after admitting that we were in a climate emergency. The project has been referred to, by many environmental groups, as a “climate bomb” for good reasons. Climate scientists tell us that it's now or never if we want to limit warming below 1.5°C. Instead, we just heard that this pipeline will send nearly 900,000 barrels of diluted bitumen, every day, which is an additional 84 million tonnes of carbon pollution every year. Now here's a bit of a carbon accounting magic trick. It doesn't show up in our emissions profile. It hangs out in other countries.
At the same time, there are major health risks. The Canadian Association of Physicians for the Environment tells us that, if a tanker carrying 600,000 barrels spills even two-thirds and only 0.5% of that reaches shore, then 25,000 people would need immediate evacuation or 105,000 if it's ignited.
It's a financial disaster. The federal government, we've learned, is doing everything possible to create shell companies to hide how much money we've wasted, but the fact is that we've collectively wasted $34 billion, about $2,000 for every Canadian household—
We're very pleased to have you here today.
This has been a good opening session for our Parliament. We're finally getting the true picture from my friends in the Liberal Party. They have been talking, this morning, about the great economic investments and opportunities in massively increasing bitumen production and exporting it around the world.
When we had here, I asked him about your energy scenario for 2050, in which you basically said we'd have pretty much close to the same amount of production in 2050 as we have today—maybe a little less. I said to Minister Wilkinson that it doesn't say much for their plan if energy stays the same, and Minister Wilkinson said that wasn't right and that he was going to make the CER do a new scenario.
I looked at that unicorns and rainbows scenario. I loved it—a multiple thousandfold increase in direct air carbon capture and all the possible things. Now we have TMX and massive increases in bitumen production per day and per barrel. I think Mr. Wilkinson was unfair in making you do all of that extra work.
Would you say that, in your first scenario, oil production was going to continue because Canada is a petrostate that got $34 billion from the taxpayer to make it happen? Your first scenario showed that oil production in Canada doesn't really decrease even as the International Energy Agency says major drops...and even as the UN's climate panel and others say we need to seriously drop. Canada is now leading the way in increasing global oil growth.
Does your unicorns and rainbows scenario get blown out now by the fact that we finally got TMX up and running?
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Thank you. I don't think I'll continue along that line.
What I would like to say is that, back in 1951, when the original Trans Mountain was put together, it took 30 months to complete. When the approval took place for this project in 2017, it was also going to take 30 months. Had there not been as many delays, it would have been completed prior to the onset of COVID-19, which, again, is one of the reasons why cost increases have been part of this.
There has been discussion about the fact that you're going to have to deal with tolls and about the management of tolls. A lot of those added costs have come because of regulatory issues that have slowed down production.
I'm curious. When companies come to you to speak about tolls, are they going to discuss that as being part of and will you consider that as part of your adjudication? How much of it is costs they should have dealt with versus costs that have been put on their side because of the regulatory system we have?
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Thank you for that question.
There are two elements that I'll highlight.
One, our conversations with regulated industry continually focus on ways we can improve our regulatory oversight. We have various forums where we have an opportunity to do that, including a twice-annual meeting with our regulated industry to speak about how to continually improve our timeliness and the competitiveness of our approach to decision-making. The advice and feedback we receive have been implemented in very practical ways, including in an initiative that, right now, is at the forefront of some of the work the regulator is doing.
When you speak about how matters are considered in the context of tolling, specifically, for Trans Mountain, I might again focus on the important role of the commission in considering the decisions before them at present.
On your question about our commitment to ensuring there is regulatory efficiency and effectiveness, I can assure you it is one of our priorities as a regulator. We want to demonstrate that regulatory excellence and a commitment to competitiveness, and do so without a compromise to those other key objectives around reconciliation: meaningfully advancing the United Nations Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples and maintaining trust and confidence in the context of our work—all of this in a time when the energy sector is transitioning in a significant way.
As a regulator, we need to be ready to do that, as well: ensure we are ready to regulate in that new environment. It's a focus for us.
:
Thank you. I only have a couple of minutes here, so I'm not going to be able to go very deep on these, but I did want to set up three things on which I would love if you could provide more information to us.
One is that there has been a lot of conversation about the tolls and how you set an appropriate toll rate. If you could provide us with more details as to the process, that would be helpful, because I keep hearing it come up in different ways.
Another piece is that I believe you mentioned the indigenous advisory committee. I would like more information, if you could provide it, on the role of the indigenous advisory committee to give us a better sense of what work is done.
The other question that has come up is about safety, which you've talked a lot about. Can you help direct us on spill safety and what the CER does? I know there were a number of conditions specifically attached to TMX, so what do you do to actually make sure that those conditions are enforced?
Maybe, because we have literally 30 seconds left, you could just give me a quick synopsis on that last point. What do you do to actually enforce the conditions that were attached to TMX?