It is 11:00 a.m. and I see that we have quorum. I therefore call the meeting to order.
I am replacing Mr. McKay today, but I will also be speaking as a member of the committee, and I will take my turn as usual.
I confirm that the witnesses have done the appropriate sound checks.
I would like to officially bid you welcome to the 36th meeting of the Standing Committee on National Defence.
Pursuant to Standing Order 108(2) and the motion adopted by the committee on October 6, the committee is continuing its study on Arctic security. Today, we will be looking at the issue of geopolitical competition in the Arctic and its repercussions on international security and cooperation.
I would like to welcome the first group of witnesses. Today, we have the pleasure of hearing Mr. Aurel Braun, who is a professor at the University of Toronto, and Mr. Stéphane Roussel, a professor with the National School of Public Administration. They are participating virtually.
I will now ask both witnesses to make their opening statements.
Professor Braun, you will have the floor for five minutes as soon as your microphone is turned on.
A vast and forbidding region that is also enormously important strategically, the Arctic holds as much as 25% of the fossil fuel reserves in the world. Among western states, however, the Arctic has hardly been a centre of geostrategic interest, and policies have often been driven by noble hopes and limited attention.
In Canada, to some the far north is too far, too large and environmentally too hostile to attract foreign conquest or significant interference. It has been tempting, then, to view the Arctic in terms of a zone of peace and co-operation, where the priorities are cultural exchanges, rescue operations and aviation regulations.
Unfortunately, to state an inconvenient truth, this attempt to segregate the region from global geopolitics has been a naive amalgam, a mirage of wishful western thinking and Russian manipulation. I would respectfully suggest that we have no choice but to face a harsh geopolitical reality: Any attempt to separate the international from the regional risks creating a dangerous illusion.
There are three major areas of concern in the Arctic that are deeply interrelated: the political, the economic-environmental and the military. In all of these Russia plays an outsized role that has been complicated further by climate change and the evolution of Russian-Chinese relations.
Certainly we do need to appreciate that Russia, the largest Arctic state, has legitimate concerns and interests. No other country has as significant a percentage of its population or derives as much of its GDP from resource extraction and shipping in the region. Compare at least 20% of GDP for Russia in contrast to less than 1% for the U.S. The Russian threat, however, derives from motives and ambitions that go far beyond these legitimate national interests.
First, from a political perspective, Russia, which has an increasingly repressive personalist regime, is seized by four intertwined actual and pending crises that are key motor forces shaping foreign policy: a political legitimacy crisis, an economic crisis, a national identity crisis and a succession crisis. Combined, these motor forces shape a Russian foreign policy that seeks to compensate for the failure of the Putin regime to create a successful modern state by creating diversionary “external successes”; thus, domestic repression foreshadows external aggression.
Second, with an economy that is so highly dependent on energy extraction, with over 60% of exports consisting of fossil fuels, Russia has made the Arctic central both to its economy and to its political and military strategy. Though Moscow pays lip service to global climate concerns, it has been an extremely poor custodian of the fragile ecosystem of the Arctic. It has engaged in massive and risky exploration, especially with funding help and direct involvement from China. As climate change has indeed induced a significant decline in the amount and the thickness of sea ice, Russia has ignored the threats and focused exclusively on economic opportunity, stressing Arctic energy extraction and navigation. Moreover, Moscow overall, in a predictable progression, has moved from pipeline diplomacy to weaponizing energy.
Third, despite Putin's reassurances about not militarizing the Arctic as well as some western assumptions of Arctic military exceptionalism, Russian military doctrine going back to 2014 shows exactly the opposite. From a new generation of nuclear weapons to its most advanced anti-aircraft system, Russia has been engaging in a massive military buildup, having more bases north of the Arctic Circle than do all other countries combined and with more heavy icebreakers than all other states.
In conclusion, ostracizing Russia in the Arctic Council recognizes Russian aggressiveness but is far from sufficient. As long as Russia remains a dictatorship with a failed economy that looks for political legitimacy via foreign adventures, as long as it is so energy-dependent, as long as it continues to drift from junior Chinese partner to a Beijing vassal, Moscow poses a growing threat that should be addressed with prudence but not with panic. Canada needs to, one, have a permanent rather than just a persistent military presence in the Arctic; two, achieve a qualitative edge in the face of Russian numerical superiority; and three, with allies, including Sweden and Finland, build a credible northern regional military capability. Security and sovereignty are central concerns in light of 21st century geopolitics, and there is no magical solution. There is little choice—
:
Thank you very much, Madam Chair.
I would like to thank the committee and the clerk for inviting me. It is always a great pleasure and an honour to contribute to the ongoing work and discussions of the House of Commons.
I would just like to say at the outset that I am not a specialist on Russia. My main field of research is Canadian foreign and defence policy, especially in the Arctic, and I've been working on these issues for 15 years now.
My statement will be based on three main points that I will try to make in four minutes.
At the end of February and the beginning of March, I received many calls from journalists, mainly from the francophone media, who were expressing their concerns on Canada's vulnerability in the Arctic and the possibility that the international tensions caused by the war in Ukraine would have an impact on the Canadian Arctic.
The first thing that I have to say on this issue is that I am optimistic. I do not believe that Canada's military interests in the Arctic are threatened, whether it be in the short or medium term. I do not believe that the hostilities and tensions with Russia will have a direct and immediate impact on Canadian interests in the Arctic.
Russia has not staked any claims to Canadian territory. In my opinion, Russia has no strategic interest in claiming Canadian territory. If ever that were to happen, it would be an attack on Canadian territory as per article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty. If it ever came to be, we'd be worrying about much more than just the Arctic.
In the short and medium term, however, Russia does represent a threat to Canada, especially in terms of disinformation and cyber attacks. I don't have any major concerns when it comes to the Arctic, however.
My second point, which is linked to the numerous calls I fielded from journalists, is to remind committee members that Canadians are very much concerned with issues related to the Arctic. It is a question of national identity. To be Canadian is to love the Arctic and to worry about it, so much so that any hint of a threat, even if it is far away and up to a certain point made up, will whip up public opinion. The committee should be aware of these strong feelings and potentially disproportionate reactions.
That brings me to my third point. If you were to ask me to give advice or direction to the Canadian Armed Forces and the Department of National Defence on the Arctic right now, it would be to carry on doing what the CAF and the department have been doing for the past 20 years. Their main concern should be the impact of climate change in the Arctic and the increased human activity that will follow. Tourism, economic activity, support to the communities, all this will increase over the next decades. The Canadian Armed Forces are usually the main tool used by the government to act in a region as isolated as this one, which means that there will be more calls upon the armed forces and more pressure on them.
In conclusion, last week you heard the Chief of the Defence staff who reminded us that the Canadian Armed Forces are lacking recruits and that they had a lot of difficulty increasing their capacity to provide the services expected by the government. This pressure will continue, even more so because there is a demand now in southern Canada for these services also. I think that is the main challenge that we will face over the next few years, and it directly concerns the Canadian Arctic.
Thank you, Madam Chair.
:
Thank you, Madam Chair.
Thank you to our witnesses for appearing.
My questions will be for Professor Braun.
Thank you for your testimony. I agree with your three points. You talked about a permanent presence; you talked about a qualitative approach; and you talked about working with allies to build up strength in the region.
I was up in Inuvik and Iqaluit just last summer. You know, Liberal hot air really won't cut it anymore. It's been seven years. We're still seeing a huge lack of infrastructure and huge lack of security delivered on the ground in the Arctic.
Are you familiar with the green hangar situation in Inuvik?
The green hangar is the hangar the Canadian Armed Forces have used for the last decades to house our air-to-air refuelling tanker when it's up there, the CC-130. In 2021, this Liberal government, which talks a big game about security, deemed it no longer necessary.
Right now that hangar sits empty in Inuvik, and we're getting into the winter here and the snow is flying up there. We don't have access to that hangar for our CC-130 to refuel our CF-18s. What that means is that at -40° conditions, it takes at least two to three hours to even get that air-to-air refuelling tanker up to speed, so any kind of quick response is really off the table. If you don't know and you're not familiar with it, I challenge you to look up a little bit about it.
Currently that NORAD asset, which is key in the north—as we know, Inuvik is the key NORAD base in the Arctic—is up for sale. We've had some interested buyers look at it, namely the Chinese and the Americans, so I guess my question to you is this: How can Canadians believe anything this government says around what it's doing to support Arctic security? We see promises from this government, but very little delivered.
Please respond.
:
Professor Braun, I have only a few minutes left, so I'll ask you another question.
I'm very familiar with the competing sovereignty claims around the seabed as well. Russia has made a claim for what we deem to be our Arctic seabed. You talked about it before, even environmentally.
We need to be able to assert ourselves. If Putin decides to set up a drilling rig 200 nautical miles off our shores, we need to be able to act and to do so decisively. I understand what you're saying. Maybe you don't think it's a threat, but they're currently invading a country.
This is from a source on the ground:
Our weather is changing rapidly. As a precursor to the fall, rains and fogs are starting. At present, the most critical NORAD base in Canada does not have any hangarage, parking, C-130 air-to-air refuellers. The A310 AAR—air-to-air refueller—cannot land in Inuvik. The C-295 SAR is not operational. [There is] insufficient fuel. As of yesterday, four airports in Nunavut, one of which is Resolute Bay—a regional hub—are short of aviation fuel.
This hardly sounds like the lead NORAD base in Canada, as our would reassure us. I've asked her questions in the House about this before. She says it's all great in the north. Does that sound like Inuvik is ready for any kind of response in the north?
:
Unfortunately, Canada has neglected its hard power for quite some time now. Given the geopolitics today, we can ill afford to do that.
Whether we're looking at general issues or at the specifics you have mentioned, all of those need to be addressed, and they need to be addressed pretty urgently, because as much as soft power is important, soft power operates together with hard power.
Russia is an aggressive dictatorship. It is backed up by China, and China is becoming increasingly interested in the Arctic. They want to make sure there's maximum extraction and a maximum amount of control by Russia with the help of China. China has talked about a polar silk road. We therefore have to confront that reality.
As much as I would like us to shift as much spending as possible to education and health care, we have little choice but to have a military capacity that is effective and credible.
I thank you for the question.
First of all, I would like to say that we already well served. I'm referring to the Canadian Rangers, who support the Canadian Armed Forces by serving as guides and mentors in the North. This organization works extremely well and has major social and economic benefits. The Canadian Rangers are for the most part members of the local communities, which builds up strong links, especially within those communities. The Canadian Armed Forces and local communities enjoy an excellent relationship thanks to this organization. There's a consensus on the fact that the Canadian Rangers are important and that they have to be maintained.
The problem is possibly one of growth. The organization is probably operating at full capacity and it would be difficult to add any new patrols and responsibilities. I don't think we need to establish new relationships, but rather cultivate the ones we already have. We should continue to gain as much as we can from the knowledge that these communities have in the regions they call home and the concerns that they can communicate to the Canadian Rangers and to certain bodies, such as this committee. Moreover, I hope that the committee will invite representatives from these communities as witnesses.
However, for the time being, I would say that it is the communities that we should be asking advice from on what more we can do right now. I also believe that things are going exceedingly well with the Canadian Rangers.
:
Yes, absolutely. Thank you so much for that question.
Again, I want to emphasize that we have to look at the Russian threat not in terms of a kind of standard military invasion, because that can be easily dismissed. That's not how threats manifest themselves, and this is not necessarily how Russia acts. It is something that we need to understand across the entire spectrum, and because we have been co-operating with other countries, because we are a member of NATO, because we are a member of NORAD....
NATO now will be enlarging, and I'm quite confident that Sweden and Finland will be members. They're almost there. We're just waiting for Turkey, basically, to decide that this is a good idea, so we have to consider the best way to make our collective defence posture more effective.
Years ago I testified before this committee, and I strongly urged that we get fifth-generation fighters so that we'd have a qualitative edge. Now that has become even more important, and we're in the process of getting that edge.
Of the other Nordic states, the western Nordic states—
:
Dr. Braun, I am sorry to have to cut you off once again, but unfortunately Ms. Lambropoulos' time is up. Please hold that thought. You might be able to come back to it in response to another question.
I will now begin my own six-minute round by thanking our two witnesses.
Let me start with you, Dr. Roussel. You mentioned at the outset that you were not really concerned by a potential Russian military threat in the Arctic. We know that Russia is not going to plant its flag on Canadian soil to claim it for itself anytime soon.
However, I would like you to expand on that, more specifically on the economic aspect, the passage of ships in our territorial waters, and the political claims. Since these could ultimately lead to a more militaristic approach, is that situation not cause for concern?
:
Thank you for the question.
Let me come back to something I mentioned very quickly in my opening remarks. The immediate threat is posed by disinformation and cyberattacks that disrupt computer systems. We have seen a number of such attacks, which are believed to have come from Russia. Those threats also target the Arctic, because the Internet connections in many of those communities are vulnerable to these types of attacks. You would be well advised to keep this in mind when you examine current threats, especially those of a political nature.
If you are referring to an increase of activities of a political nature in the north, then I would say that yes, it is a much more plausible situation. I am talking about demonstrations of force, military operations or other similar things to create an impression. The appropriate response to an increase of activities that are potentially political or that aim to prove a point is what we are already doing: performing Canadian Armed Forces exercises in the north and implementing monitoring systems so that we know who is engaging in economic or criminal activities, and where. We have to be able to detect these types of activities. Acting is one thing, but we have to be able to identify the problems.
That being said, my recommendation would be that the Canadian Armed Forces act as a quasi-police force to ensure a government presence, act as authority figures and make sure that the law is enforced on Canadian soil. It is not a military defence role, but it is extremely important nonetheless.
First off, I would say that people are perhaps not sufficiently informed. The Arctic is never top of mind for most people, and the vast majority of Canadians will never set foot in that region. Only 5% or 6% of Canadians can say that they have actually been there.
The sensitivity comes from the fact that the vast majority of Canadians, across linguistic and regional boundaries, identify the Arctic as being typically Canadian. That is where the sensibility comes from.
Public awareness of this subject could certainly be improved. However, I would not want the information provided to be alarmist and lead people to believe that the Arctic is under threat by foreign powers and that we should deploy troops over there to counter external threats. That would divert attention away from the actual issues.
We have to take care of Arctic communities and be mindful of the increased human activity that is taking place and will continue to take place in the region. That is what we should focus on, in my view. If we put too much emphasis on some far-off, external threat that is, in my opinion, not very likely to actually occur, we run the risk of driving public opinion down the wrong path and generating requests for things that are not currently necessary.
:
Thanks for your question.
Actually, it's really difficult to find that balance, because the needs are so great that everything should be a priority. That's a problem. A lot of the infrastructure could have a dual use, in the sense that if you build a deepwater port or if you build some airstrips, they could be used by military, but they could also be used for civilian activities, so a lot of the infrastructure could be prioritized without problems.
Actually, my concern is exactly the message I gave in my previous answer, which is that if we're putting too much emphasis on the distant threat and we're putting our eggs in the military basket, that could be a problem and we could face exactly the problem you exposed, in the sense that we would be neglecting local communities for something possible but not necessarily likely in the future.
My answer is to try to find infrastructure that could have dual use and to prioritize that. However, everything is a priority, and that's a real problem.
:
I want to come back to one of your remarks about needs like housing and broadening the Internet. Actually, this is not a Department of National Defence issue. There's a strategy in Canada about Internet development, and I think there were some mistakes made regarding the Arctic, but it's not in this committee that we can discuss this, because it's not a DND matter.
The problem with climate change.... Pardon me; one of the multiple problems with climate change is that it will affect much of the infrastructure, including DND infrastructure. That's why DND put climate change as one of the top issues they're facing. It will just increase the needs, and it will directly affect the community there.
One of my hopes, maybe I can say, although some don't like it, is that since many private interests will be interested in developing the Arctic for economic or other reasons, they could support or complete the government efforts in the region. I'm not necessarily trusting all of free enterprise to meet all of the demands, but it may help.
:
Thank you, Madam Chair.
First of all, thank you to the witnesses for being with us here today, not with us in the room but virtually. Thank you for your comments.
I'm going to start by suggesting that the strength of our armed forces is in significant decline. Unless we recruit, retain and train, I am fearful that we're going to be continuing down a very dark path.
It's quite obvious that we're extremely short of the goals projected by this government's plan of being “strong” and “secure” and “engaged”, which was calling for personnel levels to rise to just over 71,500. We lack modern equipment, and that certainly doesn't help. We lack a cohesive vision for Canadian foreign policy and for the military investments needed to back up that foreign policy. It's not just the lack of material support in terms of our equipment: I want to home in on the lack of trained personnel in the military.
On my question, I'd like to start with Professor Braun.
In your opinion, what is broken and how can we fix it before it's too late?
:
Well, there are a great many things broken, but one thing that really worries me is that we are spending a lot of time trying to reassure ourselves that there's no real external threat. We look at this kind of binary approach, thinking that if we spend on the military, we can't spend on social welfare needs in the north, which are indeed important.
I wish I could share the sanguine outlook of my colleague, Professor Roussel, but that is not the reality in the international system. This kind of Arctic exceptionalism is not tenable. We have to face the reality that we have to spend more altogether. We have to be able to do both. We have to take care of the aboriginal people and their needs, but we also have to take a long-range view of our defence commitments and defence requirements.
We saw, when we tried to help Ukraine, that we were so down on our equipment that our cupboards were basically bare. We'd run down our capacity.
We are a major international player, a G7 country. We have the ability to do more. It takes sacrifice and it takes commitment and it's not going to be easy, but we can't just have this kind of false assurance that there's some future threat that is undefined, that is not significant. When we look at the international system, if we spend a bit of time on Russian military doctrine and look at the behaviour of China, it's time to have a reality check.
:
Thank you very much for that question.
Russia has a very powerful military presence and a growing one in the Arctic, but they are working with a rather small economy. Russia is but a remnant of a former superpower. Its economy is not really much bigger than that of Italy's economy, so it needs Chinese help.
China needs energy. China needs to trade. China understands that the Arctic is important because there are so many fossil fuels in that region, and it has been supporting Russian exploration. It has become involved directly. China wants to see if they can develop the northern sea route, because that will cut down 30% of the time and distance of shipping things from Asia to Europe. That would dramatically increase the export potential of China.
China has resources. China has a large economy. China has funds to spare, and they have become increasingly involved. More than that, the relationship between China and Russia has been changing from an unequal partnership to where Russia may become more and more of a vassal state, in which case China would dictate according to its own needs, which is to have unbridled exploration for resources in the Arctic. That would be very dangerous for us, ecologically and ultimately strategically. They would like to have control with Russia of the northern sea route, and that would present another kind of danger to us.
This is why I think it's essential that we look at the danger coming in that area in a sophisticated way, rather than defining it in terms of a standard military operation or just looking at cyberwarfare, which is not necessarily the primary threat—not even in the immediate term.
:
Thank you, Madam Chair.
Thank you to the witnesses for being here.
I just want to follow up on some of the comments made by the Conservatives about the so-called “hot air”.
Did Russia and China become a threat in the Arctic starting in late 2015? Did infrastructure exist in the Arctic and just cease to exist in 2015? Were there NATO exercises? Were there icebreakers? Was there infrastructure? Were there personnel stationed in the Arctic who just vanished in 2015? Perhaps the hot air and the political nature that the Conservatives want to build is in fact to distract from the fact that successive governments have had to make choices.
You both have spoken about the spending choices, which I think is a fair comment and should be looked at; however, the suggestion that somehow all of this work, all of this infrastructure, all of these threats, only began once our government took over and that all of these things had been done....
We heard in previous panels that simply to build infrastructure in the Arctic takes years and years of planning to deal with the type of infrastructure that is needed in those conditions. The fact that the Conservatives like to pretend that all of this existed and only changed once they were no longer in office is simply not true.
Perhaps we could speak about where we are and where we need to go. Successive governments have not made those investments, and the hot air is coming from the Conservative side. Perhaps we could stick to the point of building up our capabilities and ensuring Arctic sovereignty and protection instead of revisionist history.
Can you talk about the threat that existed prior to 2015 and the long-standing infrastructure capability needs that we need to start making those investments in?
Either witness can answer.
:
Colleagues, please take your seats for the second hour of this meeting of the Standing Committee on National Defence.
I thank the witnesses for their patience.
We are now ready to continue with Mr. Michael Byers, professor at the University of British Columbia and Canada research chair in global politics and international law. He is joining us in person.
Welcome, Professor Byers.
Afterwards, we will hear from Mr. Whitney Lackenbauer, professor at Trent University and Canada research chair in the study of the Canadian north.
Gentlemen, you have five minutes each for your opening statement.
Professor Byers, the floor is yours.
:
Thank you very much, Madam Chair.
Good afternoon everyone. I am pleased to be with you today.
[English]
I want to begin by thanking the clerk of this committee for having noticed two days ago that I was going to be in Ottawa today and therefore available to testify in person. It makes all the difference to see you face to face.
Thank you for the work that you've done, especially through the tough years of the pandemic.
I was able to hear the testimony of the witnesses on the previous panel and I want to both agree and disagree with them.
I want to agree that Russia is a significant security threat to Canada, including in the Arctic, and has been since the 1950s. Through long-range bombers carrying nuclear warheads through to the development of intercontinental ballistic missiles and through today to the development of cruise missiles and hypersonic missiles, Russia is a threat to North American security—absolutely.
Given the behaviour of the Putin regime, that threat is greater now than it has been at any point since 1962. We live in dangerous times in terms of the Russian threat to North America. That's where I agree with one of the previous panellists, and before I move on to other issues, I will talk a bit about how we can help to deal with that threat or manage that threat.
In terms of managing the threat from Russia, which is now through the ICBMs, cruise missiles and hypersonic missiles, Russia is far too advanced with its technology for us to have the capacity to shoot those things down, nor indeed is the United States capable of shooting them down. The reason we have our radar surveillance in the Arctic is to preserve the ability of our American friends and neighbours to launch in the event of a Russian first strike. This is the preservation of mutually assured destruction.
The North Warning System is about that. It's not about protecting us in the sense of attacking the incoming Russian missiles; it's protecting us by providing us with the assurance that Russia will be destroyed if they launch at North America. We need to upgrade the North Warning System to provide continued surveillance and assistance to our American allies. That includes over-the-horizon radar, absolutely. We need to preserve the mutually assured destruction that has protected us since the 1960s in terms of the nuclear deterrent. Those radar stations in the north are our biggest contribution to North American security.
In terms of the other dimensions of Arctic security, most of the action right now is in the European Arctic. It's in the North Sea, the Norwegian Sea and the Barents Sea. The preponderance of Russia's military strength, its non-army military strength—naval, air force, ICBMs—is in northwestern Russia in the Russian Arctic, predominantly on the Kola Peninsula. Their access to the world's oceans is through the Greenland-Iceland-U.K. gap, and NATO naval forces and air forces are very active in dealing with Russian activity in that area. In just the last few days, they conducted major exercises with their nuclear forces, including missiles on land, submarine-based missiles and nuclear bomber capacity. They tested that just a few days ago.
I had the opportunity to spend some time with the commander of the U.S. Second Fleet in September 2019, and he told me that already then, in September of 2019, the level of Russian submarine activity was comparable to what he saw as the commander of a U.S. attack submarine in the latter part of the Cold War. There is activity there. Canada has a role to play. Our frigates have a role to play with other NATO naval forces in that theatre. Our long-range surveillance aircraft have a role to play in that theatre and do play a role.
Turning to the Canadian Arctic, Russia is not going to invade the Canadian Arctic. Think about it: Practically speaking, Russia is already losing a war against the Ukrainian military. Russia already owns half of the Arctic, incontestably. Russia doesn't need any North American Arctic, and Russia would lose very badly, faced with the combined response capability of NATO, including the United States, so an invasion, in terms of attempting to conquer territory, is just not on their cards. I agree with Professor Roussel here.
:
Madam Chair, thank you for the opportunity to offer some opening remarks.
[English]
Since Russia launched its brutal further invasion of Ukraine in February, we've witnessed the further spillover of international tensions into regional circumpolar affairs, which raises fundamental questions about our commitment to maintaining peace and stability in the Arctic. Accordingly, we need to be more careful than ever to base our decisions on well-grounded assumptions and evidence about Arctic defence and security.
First, we often talk about the Arctic as if it's a single geopolitical space. Some issues and threats are truly circumpolar in orientation, but other aspects are best considered through a sub-regional perspective.
As Professor Byers just said, there are specific threats to the European Arctic that are substantively different from threats facing the Canadian Arctic. For example, the threat posed by Russian land forces along the borders with the Nordic states represents a very different situation from what we face in Canada. We can't lose sight of this.
I also think there's important analytic value in distinguishing between threats passing through or over the Arctic rather than threats to or in the Arctic.
The first category is on threats that pass through or over the Arctic to strike a target outside of the region. These are things like cruise missiles, hyperkinetic glide vehicles, ballistic missiles, bombers and submarines. It's notable that these weapons and delivery systems are not primarily oriented at striking Arctic targets; they're geared toward global balance of power and deterrence, and thus best situated on the international level of analysis.
That stated, they do have an Arctic nexus, because we have invested in or are investing further in Arctic capabilities to detect, deter and defend against these global threats. However, to suggest that these defences against these “through” threats are about defending the Arctic rather than about defending the North American homeland more generally is a misrepresentation. This has not fundamentally changed since February. I think we're best to consider these through threats broadly, as part of integrated deterrence. Here is where the NORAD modernization focus on creating a layered, all-domain defensive ecosystem intersects with Arctic defence and security.
The second category is on threats to the Arctic, so threats that emanate from outside of the Canadian Arctic and threaten our Arctic. Some theoretical threats are kinetic military threats. We might think of Alert or Thule as obvious targets in the case of a general world war, given their strategic significance.
I don't typically consider traditional military threats as the most acute security threats to the North American Arctic. Instead, I think of foreign interference, including misinformation campaigns designed to undermine the credibility of the Canadian state or to polarize debate on sensitive issues and widen existing fault lines, intending to destabilize our democratic societies. This category could also include a below-the-threshold attack on a piece of critical infrastructure that is designed to create panic to force the Government of Canada to redirect resources in efforts to deal with that problem. We've seen Russia cutting pipelines and cables on the seabed near Norway. Again, this category of threats to the Arctic also includes climate change in a broad sense, as well as pandemics.
How do we see our primary strategic competitors as representing current or potential security threats to the Arctic? I think this depends on the sector and domain of security that we're looking at.
It's important to note that most Arctic states assess a relatively low risk of armed conflict in the Arctic compared to other regions, but recognize that forms of interstate competition are already occurring below the threshold of armed conflict. After all, hybrid warfare, cyber-attacks, cyber-espionage and disinformation campaigns have become central pillars of Russian and Chinese approaches to strategic competition and warfare. We face complex and sophisticated economic-based threats from both state and non-state actors, which I'm happy to discuss further.
From my perspective, I agree with Professor Byers. I don't think there's a greater likelihood of interstate conflict arising over Arctic disputes over resources, Arctic boundaries, Arctic state sovereignty or commercial access to shipping lanes than there was nine months ago or even five years ago. I'm increasingly concerned about the spillover of Arctic dynamics into the region. This highlights the importance of considering how we can maintain Arctic peace and civility while supporting our principled stand against Russian aggression, and how Canada can, in concert with our allies, avoid an increasingly destabilizing security dilemma vis-à-vis Russia in the Arctic.
Finally, what are the threats in the Canadian Arctic?
From my vantage point, I see most of the challenges in the region as primarily on the soft security and safety side of the operational mission spectrum, meaning threats associated with environmental and climate change as well as major air disasters or maritime disasters. Other threats in the Arctic include the impacts of climate change on Arctic military operations and to critical infrastructure, including defence installations.
What do I prioritize coming out of this?
First is making smart defence investments that align defence and security needs with the well-established priorities of territorial, provincial and indigenous governments. Priority areas include communications infrastructure; improvements to airfields, ports and harbour facilities; and sensor systems that enhance our domain awareness in both environmental and human dimensions.
Addressing infrastructure deficits in the north that create vulnerabilities in the security sphere should be synchronized wherever possible, in order to address persistent social, health and economic inequities in the region. This requires that the Government of Canada do things differently from the way it has done things has in the past.
Second is the importance of strategic messaging. How do we carefully calibrate our message to ensure we're projecting unity, strength and confidence with clarity, precision and consistency? In this sense, I see integrated deterrence as a source of regional stability.
Third is the desire to improve domain—
I think our ability to defend against all threats, at the current moment, is limited, but this doesn't cause me undue alarm. As we heard from the chief of the defence staff a few days ago, it's about looking over the horizon to the future. We need to make investments now to anticipate potential limitations and make sure we are preparing to defend against threats that are emerging.
Improved domain awareness and information dominance are key in this regard. What this means is gathering, analyzing and sharing information at the speed of relevance, not only among decision-makers within Canada but also among our allies and partners. Here is where I think Canada can and should seek a leadership role.
Second , along these lines we need to synchronize our Arctic-related homeland defence efforts with our allies. This allows us to credibly and collaboratively address shared threats to, through and in, in a rational, proportionate and resource-effective manner, while reinforcing the—
:
What do we need in terms of surveillance?
We have very good space-based surveillance right now with the RADARSAT Constellation, three satellites launched in 2019. They have a seven-year lifespan, and the procurement for the replacement needs to be set in motion now. Those are our eyes in the sky in the Arctic. They can see at night through clouds. They were built for Arctic security. RADARSAT Constellation renewal is absolutely top of my list.
Second, our Aurora long-range patrol aircraft are 40 years old. They're still doing a great job, including in the North Sea with NATO forces, but we should be renewing those.
Then in terms of being able to respond to smaller incidents, for search and rescue or harassment activities by Russia—not invasion, but harassment activities by Russia—our Cormorant search and rescue helicopters are amazing platforms. Again, a mid-life renewal needs to be set in motion.
I think there are actually a lot of misconceptions about what has been going on with the Arctic Council since late February. First of all, it has not been suspended. The like-minded Arctic states—and you notice I did not say “Arctic 7”, because I wish that term would be completely excised from the conversation these days—have chosen to put a pause on their involvement for the time being.
To me, this is appropriate because the emphasis is on Russia to make things right, to allow institutions like the Arctic Council to be reinvigorated. The reality is that there is no Arctic Council without Russia being involved, given that the intent of Canada and other countries that created it was for to be something that all of the circumpolar partners could be part of.
However, I agree very much, Mr. May, that we have to be really careful. The primary effect of this pause that I am worried about concerns all of the fantastic science that the Arctic Council does and the gaps that are going to emerge if we don't resume that science. My second concern is for the permanent participants, this being an absolutely innovative forum for indigenous engagement in international affairs, and how this pause is curtailing the ability of Canadian indigenous peoples and their transnational kin to contribute to and inform the Arctic discussion.
Again, I think there are some concerns with respect to how long the Arctic Council will remain on pause and how long observers like China are willing to wait, but to me that consideration is secondary or tertiary to the other considerations that are out there.
:
I'll respond in English because it's my better language.
China and Russia are not friends. They are allies of convenience. At the moment, China is purchasing vast amounts of Russian resources at bargain basement prices and then selling them onward for enormous profits. It's selling oil and gas to the European Union at very significant profit for China, so it's taking advantage of the situation.
They are not friends in the way that Canada and the United States are friends, and one could foresee in future a Chinese invasion of the Russian far east to seize territory and gain resources. I don't see that relationship becoming much closer in terms of trust or in terms of integrating their militaries. However, obviously, Russia is the weaker power, and China is rapidly becoming more powerful, so we do need to watch this.
We also need to watch India, which is providing far too much support to Russia, and let me just say this: Turkey has surprised me by sticking to its NATO alliance commitments, so good for Turkey. However, it's very mobile.
In terms of China in the Arctic, China's principal interests in the Arctic in the last decade have been access to shipping and access to resources. In terms of resources, until recently it was very welcome in the Arctic states in terms of foreign investment and in terms of trade.
I come from Vancouver. If you look at Vancouver harbour, you see that it's full of ships carrying Canadian resources to China. This is not something that's changed radically in the last few years. In terms of shipping routes—and most people don't know this—China does not oppose Canada's legal position in the Northwest Passage. It's been very clear to Chinese shippers that it expects Chinese shipping companies to follow Canadian rules.
Is it a global threat in terms of its increasing power and the centralization of authority in President Xi Jinping? Absolutely. That's a major concern. Is it a threat to the Canadian Arctic? It's not an imminent one. However, I mentioned harassment earlier—not an invasion, but harassment. Russia and potentially China could begin to cause problems. The Russians have been messing around with subsea cables in the Norwegian Arctic, for instance, and flying drones near oil platforms. We could see low-level harassment in the Canadian Arctic, so we do need to step up our surveillance capabilities. We do need to support the Canadian Rangers on the missions that they do outside of communities. We need to keep our eyes on what's happening, but we don't need a massive military buildup in anticipation of an invasion. That would be a diversion of resources away from the real theatre, which is the European theatre right now.
:
Yes, Madam Chair, I definitely concur with most of the points.
I think we want to parse Chinese interest in the Russian shipping and resource sectors as yielding somewhat different outcomes. We have seen Chinese investment in the liquefied natural gas sector, particularly in the Yamal Peninsula with the Yamal-2 project, which is the one example of Chinese investment in the Arctic on a grand scale.
What's also telling is that despite all of the win-win rhetoric and enthusiasm from Beijing towards Moscow's development aspirations for the northern sea route, the actual money invested in building up infrastructure along that route or building up the transportation arteries to connect the northern sea route to Eurasian markets is actually very modest. I think this speaks to the fact that this is largely a transactional relationship to date.
As Canadians, we also need to remember that as much as we have the Arctic as part of our identity, as Professor Roussel said a few moments ago, so does Russia. They're very proud, so the notion that somehow China would be treated as an equal within the Russian Arctic I think is something very unpalatable to the Russian psyche.
In some respects, I'm also concerned that we need to be careful. China does represent risks in our Arctic and elsewhere in particular sectors—influence through economic activities and concerns about science and research security—but we have to be careful not to elevate them to the status of a peer competitor in the Arctic itself. They are not an Arctic state. They have none of the sovereignty or rights associated with being an Arctic state. It's really important that we don't elevate them up to a stature within this discussion that quite frankly they don't deserve and they don't warrant, based upon what their rights and footprint are within the region.
:
The committee probably knows this: The White House released a U.S. Arctic strategy in the last couple of weeks. I highly commend it. It's not in its entirety appropriate for Canada, but I would say that much of its substance can guide us and that a partnership is necessary with the United States on many of these issues.
In that context, I would say that we do have an ongoing dispute with the United States concerning the legal status of the Northwest Passage. We demonstrated just a couple of months ago our ability to resolve Arctic disputes with allies; I'm talking about the maritime boundaries settlement and the Hans Island settlement with Denmark. Given the increased Russian threat and the long-term challenge of China, this might be an opportune moment for us to sit down with the Americans and talk about the Northwest Passage in an open-minded way to see if we can tie up that ongoing point of difference between Canada and the United States.
In terms of the larger situation in the Canadian Arctic, again, we need to maintain and build our search and rescue capacity, our ability to get places quickly to save lives and to, if necessary, board a non-compliant civilian vessel in the Northwest Passage. The Cormorant search and rescue helicopters are fabulous for that.
As well, we need to renew some of our existing capability before it ages out—the RADARSAT Constellation, the Aurora long-range patrol vessels—and I would suggest that we need to make sure that our fighter jets, including our next-generation fighter jets, are able to operate across the Arctic. That will involve some improvements in runways and ground infrastructure and all of that for when they come online.
There are a lot of small things that can be done, but my big response to your question is that it's the U.S.-Canada relationship: Let's work with them as much as we can to see if we can resolve the difference.
:
I will focus directly on what you asked about offensive capability. The way I would phrase it is like this: How do we avoid the security dilemma that occurs when we make investments in defence that are interpreted by an adversary or competitor as something that in turn threatens them and encourages them to make an increased investment and triggers what might be an arms race or a security spiral?
In this particular case, I think it is important for us to go in soberly and to recognize that Russia does have legitimate sovereignty and sovereign rights in a large part of the Arctic. It does have defence concerns. Given where it has chosen to position a lot of its deterrence capabilities and defence capabilities, largely relating to global power issues, and having chosen to invest in the Arctic, particularly in the Kola Peninsula, means that NATO is perceived as a threat to the Russian Arctic in a way that I don't think Russia is perceived as a threat to the Canadian Arctic.
Being appreciative of that to me makes it absolutely essential that we get strategic messaging right and that we're very careful in explaining that investments in NATO are investments in a defensive alliance, not an offensive one. When Moscow chooses to go and construct narratives suggesting that NATO is a threat to Russia, this has no founding in what NATO really is.
I think it's also very important to think about ensuring that we manage this security situation in the Arctic for fear that it will invite outsiders. I was struck by the Chinese ambassador to Iceland, who made a final intervention in response to a NATO official at the Arctic Circle assembly in Reykjavik a few weeks ago. He said that China has obligations to look to theoretical military roles in the Arctic because, as a Security Council member, it might have an obligation to intervene if things get out of hand.
That's something I'm going to have to chew on for a long time. That's not a future I would welcome under any scenario, but to me it amplifies the importance of the Arctic states' managing this issue to the best of our abilities and not inviting the rest of the world to come.
:
Thank you, Madam Chair.
I'll be asking my questions of Professor Lackenbauer.
You spoke a lot about the non-military threat that Russia potentially doesn't pose to the Arctic, but let's speak about some of the things you spoke about just recently.
You criticized Chinese claims to the Arctic in what you just mentioned. I'll also bring up that the Russians have also claimed 705,000 square kilometres of what we recognize in Canada as Canadian territory. That's Arctic seabed that has a lot of resources. Russia has said that it's theirs. It made this claim at the UN many years ago. These are two very strong countries that have made a very real threat.
I'm just going to quote from the document that was referred to by my colleague Mr. Kelly previously. This is China's own document on Arctic policy:
China is an important stakeholder in Arctic affairs. Geographically, China is a "Near-Arctic State", one of the continental States that are closest to the Arctic Circle. The natural conditions of the Arctic and their changes have a direct impact on China's climate system and ecological environment, and, in turn, on its economic interests in agriculture, forestry, fishery, marine industry and other sectors.
The reason I bring that up is to bring you back to the question of why we're here today talking about Arctic security. Seeing that there are these two very real claims, two very real assertions in the Arctic, do you think it's necessary to have a sufficient military presence in the Arctic? I'm not even talking about a buildup for a potential invasion; I'm just talking of a presence and a basis on which to assert ourselves and our sovereignty.
:
Professor, in theory you're correct, but what if Russia and China decide they are going to assert themselves?
Again, going back to my original question, do Canadians...? I have been up to the north. This might be a topic that's of concern to us; it might be fifth on the list, and further down in the lower half of our country, but if you live in the north, this threat is very real, and it's at your front door. They very much take it as a threat to their personal security and their people's security.
Going back to my question, do we not have to have some kind of strength in the north, and again, on the topic of the day here at committee, sufficient strength to be able to assert our Arctic security?
:
Thank you, Madam Chair.
[English]
I would like to thank both of our witnesses for being here to answer some of our questions today.
I'm going to start with Mr. Lackenbauer, but both witnesses can chime in if they feel like it.
Both of you mentioned that Russia is not a direct threat at the moment to our Canadian Arctic. Of course, other witnesses, and I think all Canadians, can understand that climate change is real and that it has a real impact in the Arctic and the north.
The reality will be changing in the near future. This was perhaps not an attractive place in the past, but as it becomes warmer and more attractive, it is possibly going to trigger more conflict in this area by Russia. I understand that we're not necessarily at the top of Russia's list of countries to get into conflict with, but I believe most of the members of our Parliament have been banned from Russia based on our interventions with Ukraine.
Can you comment on that, what the future might look like, and how we can prepare ourselves for that type of situation?
:
Thank you, Ms. Lambropoulos.
First of all, I think we have to prepare for many future contingencies and possibilities. Ultimately, at the end of the day, I turn to our military and security experts to determine the balance of probabilities and risks, because we're always managing risks.
Climate change is the existential threat to humanity. We're seeing its impacts most directly and urgently playing out in the Arctic right now. Where I see that affecting our defence posture is on questions around the Canadian Armed Forces as representing essential capabilities to deal with the emergencies in the north. We need to be able to respond, as a country, to humanitarian and environmental disasters of greater magnitude and frequency. I think this brings up pretty fundamental questions about whether we have the right force mix and structures to address these missions, in addition to operations across the spectrum of competition.
In essence, I see climate change as representing a clear and present danger to many of my friends in the north in a day-to-day way. That requires us to develop the right capabilities now, and at the same time to anticipate what stressors on the environment might bring in terms of the competition changing going forward, and potentially different patterns of activities or risks that we should be anticipating.
The fact that Canada has offered to host the NATO centre of excellence on climate and security in Montreal, to me, is a step in the right direction by our being leaders in understanding and anticipating some of those drivers and dynamics.
:
I have two initial points.
I'm proud to be on the Russian sanctions list also.
Voices: Oh, oh!
Mr. Michael Byers: I think I was the first Canadian academic to be so honoured. It probably has something to do with calling Vladimir Putin a war criminal in The Globe and Mail.
I carry no brief for Russia. It is a threat to Canada, and that includes in the Arctic.
With respect to nuclear missiles, including cruise missiles and hypersonic missiles, we do need that over-the-horizon radar. It could be a threat in terms of low-level harassment, interfering with communications, for instance, or disinformation campaigns in Arctic communities. The sorts of things Russia does against the west in general can happen in the Arctic. That's why we need to maintain our surveillance capability, especially from space.
:
I think I'll take this first because, of the two witnesses, I'm the international lawyer, although Professor Lackenbauer knows a heck of a lot about international law.
Russia has the same position concerning the legal status of its Arctic straits as Canada has with respect to the legal status of our Northwest Passage. It has the same principal opponent, in terms of the legal claim, in the United States. That's why the dispute is an awkward thing for Canada and the United States to have in the current situation, when we're effectively supporting a belligerent in a war against Russia.
Again, I call for Canada to have open-minded discussions—not negotiations, but open-minded discussions—with the United States on the Northwest Passage.
I will say something else that I think Professor Lackenbauer will support; he's effectively said this. It's that there will be a time when we need to re-engage with Russia—in other words, when Vladimir Putin is gone—and the Arctic is a place where we will be able to start that re-engagement. To the degree that we can avoid an escalation of rhetoric, the so-called security dilemma, that's probably a good thing.
Again, I carry no brief for Russia. Vladimir Putin is a war criminal, and Russia does pose a very significant security threat to North America in terms of nuclear weapons, so let's keep our eye on that ball.
:
Thank you, Madam Chair.
This is in response to Professor Lackenbauer.
You seem to not see the need to have a presence in the Arctic for the reasons you give. Theoretically, they can't do it. However, we see Ukraine being invaded, based on a previous theory that it could happen, and sad to say, lawyers couldn't keep an invading Russian army out of Ukraine.
I'll ask Professor Byers what I had asked before.
Russian and Chinese claims in the Arctic are growing stronger. Their assertions are getting stronger. What does Canada need to do—and you've alluded to it before in your previous comments—to be seen strong enough by these two countries to push back against those threats?
:
The most obvious thing is something that we are doing in terms of standing with our NATO allies against Russia in Ukraine. NATO is much stronger than it was before February 24, and that's a really good thing. Canada is there. We need to continue that stance as a central pillar in the NATO alliance. That's the strongest signal we can send.
In terms of the Arctic, we need to maintain and improve our capability to see what's going on there. That's the first step. In addition to that, we need to improve our ability to get to places quickly with small numbers of personnel to deal with harassment situations and search and rescue situations. It's a very, very big region. It's very hostile. We need the ability to get small numbers of troops or search and rescue technicians to places quickly and reliably, and then we build, if necessary, into long-term investments along with our other NATO partners.
Building those kinds of long-term investments is a decades-long exercise. We should focus on the immediate, which is the NATO alliance facing Russia in Ukraine and on the entire frontier up to northern Norway. In addition to that, we should improve our ability to see what's going on in airspace, including space, as well as tracking potential missiles and tracking what's happening on the ground.
Those are investments we can get to work on right now. We need to upgrade the North Warning System. We need the next procurement for the RADARSAT Constellation. Those are my two top items. Let's make sure that our glasses are new and clear in the Arctic.
:
Thank you very much, Madam Chair.
[English]
Thank you again, gentlemen.
In the last hour, Madame Lambropoulos touched on a topic with one of our witnesses. I tried to find time to talk to Professor Braun about this and then ran out of time.
I'll now take the opportunity to see if I can get some thoughts from Professor Byers on multilateral co-operation. How can we participate in better countering any influence, whether it be Russian or Chinese, while working with our allies? We also talked in the last hour about Sweden and Finland and their presumed ascension to NATO.
Professor Byers, how can we work with our partners and allies?
:
We can do it in thousands of different respects.
This is a time for like-minded countries to pull together. You can go from everywhere, from the United Nations down to bilateral co-operation. You can integrate military capabilities to build a system rooted in the west that stands for the rule of law internationally, and for peace and co-operation, partly because that makes us stronger as a collectivity and partly because it sends a signal.
One reason I'm sure Canada and Denmark resolved their maritime boundary and Hans Island disputes was to send a signal to the rest of the world that this is how civilized countries resolve their territorial differences. It's through negotiation, not invasion.
I could go on. We need to strengthen the trading regime and fight back against the forces of provincialism and nationalism, or the idea that everyone can only act in their own best interest. We need to see the western alliances as something truly cohesive.
What I'm arguing for here is our need to do what we've done since February. Western countries have been pulling together and standing up. It's been truly remarkable. Everyone thought NATO was dead, especially during the last American administration, but see how it's come back and stood up for democracy and freedom in Ukraine. We just need to build on that.
Across the board, our diplomats should be charged with finding every opportunity for co-operation with our friends, not needlessly antagonizing our opponents. Let's keep the Arctic Council suspended so that when there's a new Russian government, we can start up again. Let's keep the international space station going; it's a place where Russia is actually co-operating with the west.
There are a few things we can try to stabilize, but the big thing is for the west to pull together.
:
Thank you so much. That ends the question round.
I'd like to thank Mr. Byers and Dr. Lackenbauer for being with us and their considerable input to the committee. Again, this will inform our thinking for the future.
I want to make it clear to the regular chair of the committee that I took absolutely no pleasure in interrupting the witnesses or my fellow members during question period.
Let's take a quick look at what we have planned for the next few meetings.
On Tuesday, we'll continue our study on Arctic security by looking at the modernization of the North American Aerospace Defence Command, or NORAD. We expect to have representatives from NORAD and academics.
Further to the motion that the committee recently adopted, an invitation has been formally extended to the Canadian Armed Forces, the Royal Canadian Mounted Police and the Canadian Security Intelligence Service. We are waiting for their response.
Another important point is that our friendly clerk is waiting for your security information for access to the Pentagon.
Since there's nothing else, the meeting is adjourned.