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Good morning, everyone.
[Translation]
I call the meeting to order.
Welcome to meeting number 159 of the House of Commons Standing Committee on Public Accounts.
[English]
Today's meeting is taking place in a hybrid format, pursuant to the Standing Orders. Members are attending in person in the room and remotely using the Zoom application.
Before we begin, I'd like to ask all in-person participants to read the guidelines written on the updated cards on the table. These measures are in place to help prevent audio and feedback incidents and protect the health and safety of all participants, especially our interpreters. I'll give a kind reminder to all those in person and online that for the safety of our interpreters, it is very important that your microphone is muted when you're not speaking.
[Translation]
Thank you for your co‑operation.
Pursuant to Standing Order 108(3)(g), the committee is beginning consideration of the Public Accounts of Canada 2024, referred to the committee on Tuesday, December 17, 2024.
[English]
I'll first announce the witnesses, and I'll have a couple of words to say to pre-empt any comments.
I thank you all for agreeing to come in on such short notice. I appreciate it, as do all members.
From the Office of the Auditor General, we have Karen Hogan, Auditor General of Canada. Thank you to you and your team. We also have Andrew Hayes, deputy auditor general; Sana Garda, principal; and Etienne Matte, principal.
From the Department of Finance, we have Chris Forbes, deputy minister. It's good to see you again.
Finally, from the Treasury Board Secretariat, we have Annie Boudreau, comptroller general of Canada. Good day. It's nice to see you and your team this morning. They are Blair Kennedy, executive director, government accounting policy and reporting, and John Daley, senior director, public accounts and advisory services.
I have a couple of comments before I hear your points of order or points of protest on the 2024 public accounts.
These documents were tabled yesterday, which was the very last day Parliament was sitting. As long as I have been chair, this committee, in report after report, has been urging and calling for these documents to be tabled by the end of September. They're typically tabled at some time in October or early November. This call has had cross-party support.
I'm going to let members probe our witnesses today as to why they've come so late, but if you're protesting us sitting after yesterday, I would urge you to direct your questions to cabinet ministers for not managing this document so that it was presented to Parliament in a timely manner to ensure that members and the public have the accountability and transparency they deserve.
On that note, I'm going to turn things over to our witnesses, who will each be given time to speak if they choose to take it.
Ms. Hogan, you have the floor for up to—
I should use my time to rail at our witnesses, and you can get back to us later. No, I won't do that.
I have to express my extreme disappointment with the government. I understand what they're trying to do here, which is, as we've seen in the past from the Liberals, using guillotine motions to stop us from studying the various scandals this government has been involved in.
This issue we have before us today, the so-called late meeting for the public accounts, is solely on the government. This is, from what I have seen, the latest we have had a tabling of the public accounts in history. I advise and welcome anyone to send me an email or text if I am wrong. I had the library of Canada look into this, and we have had December tablings before but never this late. Also, it's on basically the final day of the House of Commons. There is a legal requirement to have that done by December 31, but the House isn't sitting then. If the public accounts hadn't been tabled yesterday, they would have been tabled in the House at the end of January. As it is, I think it's 261 days after year-end.
For the three or four people watching at home—
Mr. Francis Drouin: At least he's honest.
Mr. Kelly McCauley: Hi, Mom. I'm sure the other two are my wife and one of my two sons, because my other son has better things to do.
Canada's fiscal year-end is March 31, and we're now in December. The Toronto Stock Exchange, the TSX, requires any publicly listed company to have their accounts publicized, I think, within 30 days. If the Government of Canada were on the TSX, it would be delisted for not having the accounts open.
Why is this important? Well, there are several reasons. One is accountability, but parliamentarians are asked to and tasked with voting on expenditures. The supplementary estimates just came out—they're $26 billion—and we were asked to vote on them before we even knew whether there was any money in the bank. Can you imagine going to your bank and asking for a mortgage for $20 million for a house but telling the bank, “You have to tell me yes or no before I tell you whether I have a job, money in the bank, finances and the ability to pay”? That's what the government has done in delaying the public accounts. The supplementary estimates were reported two weeks ago, and we were forced to vote on $26 billion before we found out the government blew 55% past their previous guardrail.
Fired deputy leader and finance minister stated that a $40-billion deficit was our guardrail. We would not go past it. It had as much credibility as Barack Obama drawing his red line in the sand about chemical weapons in Syria: “Oh, we went over that. Well, here's a new line in the sand over slaughtering Kurds.” They blew by it. We voted on it after being assured repeatedly that we would not go past the $40-billion deficit, yet what was the deficit, as we found out yesterday weeks after we approved the supplementary spending? It was $61 billion. We should have had this information long ago, and now we're asked to work an extra day in the House of Commons to examine this money—the $61 billion in spending, $21 billion of it blown past—but the Liberals say it's inconvenient for them; we shouldn't be doing it.
I'm happy to work today. I'd rather be back home. I had meetings planned in another city today that I've had to blow off again, but this is important. It's $21 billion. The Canadian dollar is cratering. It's lost four cents. If anyone around the table—or the three people, maybe four now, watching at home—is heading to the States over Christmas, the dollar has cratered four cents in the last couple of months.
Now we have a financial crisis. We have a finance minister—well, maybe we don't. Maybe it's or maybe it's not. Who's next up? Is it ? How bad is the government that they don't even know, before they fire their finance minister, to have the next one lined up?
Apparently, Mark Carney was lined up. It is twice that he's gone to the altar and then no-showed. How many more times is the government going to plan a wedding for Mark Carney just to have him show up and then leave all the guests waiting and wondering at the church what's going on?
They couldn't even update the required succession planning for who the finance minister would be. Maybe they couldn't put publicly on their website that it was Mark Carney because they had to hide it from at the time, but why was on it, the disgraced former ESDC minister?
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I am shocked that Mr. Drouin would deprive our witnesses of my Christmas offering to them of—
Mr. Francis Drouin: Free advice.
Mr. Kelly McCauley: Oh, I have lots of free advice, and lots of questions.
Getting back to this for the third time, the government has listed on their website, with the finance minister unavailable, the industry minister, who of course is embroiled in the green slush fund. If Canadians are wondering what that is, it's what has tied up Parliament for I think 10 weeks now. This committee has ordered, Parliament has ordered, that documents regarding the green slush fund, specifically around and his predecessor, be tabled. The government is blocking that. The minister embroiled in the slush fund is next on the list to deliver the fall economic statement. Of course, he famously refused. I don't blame him, and I find it curious.
Who was next on the list? It was . I have to question the competence. Surely someone would have said, “Who's next on the list after Minister Champagne?” There are lots of people in Finance and in the government. There are lots of paid political staffers and exempt staffers. Surely someone should have said, “Hey, isn't this the same Randy that just got thrown out of cabinet for falsely claiming indigenous status?”
Of course, someone could have said that he was thrown out of cabinet for continuing his business with Mr. Anderson, or perhaps it was one of the other reasons he was thrown out of cabinet. Surely someone should have known, in crisis mode, when they were going through the list, that maybe they should put someone else on the list.
There are even some qualified members at this table who could have read the fall economic statement quite competently. I mean that sincerely. Surely someone—
Mr. Nathaniel Erskine-Smith: Not all of us, though.
Voices: Oh, oh!
Mr. Kelly McCauley: No, I think you could have, sir.
Maybe the other Randy is sitting in Edmonton Centre enjoying his last few months before the election—before he gets thrown out—and is thinking, “Hey, I'm next. I'm back in cabinet.” No, Randy, you're not. What happened instead—
Mr. Francis Drouin: Don't measure the curtains.
Mr. Kelly McCauley: I agree with Mr. Drouin, who's saying don't measure the windows for curtains before the election happens, but I can safely state that Edmonton Centre will not be returning to the House of Commons.
I'm sorry, Randy, if you're watching. There's guessing, there's hoping and then there's reality. That's just the reality, I'm afraid.
What ended up happening was that the ended up coming in with the fall economic statement, dropping it and then fleeing. We didn't get an attempt to address the fall economic statement.
Getting back to the public accounts, I accept some of Ms. Boudreau's comments, but we have seen a massive increase in the number of public servants. Surely there is a transition plan for the comptroller general's office. Mr. Huppé left, but there are lots of people in the department who are very competent who could have certainly achieved this in time.
Why I have great lack of faith in some of the explanations is that this is the same government, the same department, that famously, a couple of years ago, reopened the public accounts after they'd already been signed off on in order to stuff money back in to show perhaps a better reason.... I think two or three years ago, we ATIPed the information on that. We're still waiting. Some of my ATIPs will actually be eligible for a pension before NDP leader will get his pension. Maybe that's when the government will actually release them.
We have an administration in government that has, for the first time since Confederation, reopened the public accounts, stuffed money into the previous year and closed the accounts. This year, they have been the latest ever, and we have heard some of the reasons why, like the $16 billion more being put in for contingent liabilities. I accept that the $16 billion is fully legit, but I have to wonder why, when the budget came out at the beginning of the new fiscal year, this money wasn't in there. What happened in the short period between then and now, where all of a sudden there's $16 billion?
That was a question I was asking, because the wording is very specifically about items that are “assessed as likely to result”. Basically, what happens with contingent liabilities—lawsuits or other obligations—is that when they mature, they result in a settlement, and that's when they get put on the books.
What happened between the budget coming out and very recently, when they delayed the public accounts to put that in? I would like to ask the witnesses here, but, of course, the Liberals are blocking our ability to ask those questions.
Ms. Iqra Khalid: Call the vote.
Mr. Kelly McCauley: I would certainly like to ask them about that. I would ask them right now, but I don't think they're allowed to take the floor. Perhaps they can sign up to be on the speaking order afterwards.
It's a great concern. We have late public accounts. We had commentary about the pension surplus for the public service.
I have great concern over the surplus for a couple of reasons. For one, I believe the Treasury Board and the government use a false discount rate. We saw some internal documents from the government about pensions explaining that there's an excessively high—in some people's views—discount rate for the funded portion of public service pensions. Their explanation is that they can have a high discount rate because they take higher risk. They get higher returns because they take higher risks, but they take higher risks because the taxpayers are on the hook for any losses. Instead of using a real return bond, as we use for the unfunded portion of the pensions, I think the pre-2005 portion, we use an artificially high number that perhaps hides a lot of the liability this government has on public service pensions.
The C.D. Howe Institute has guesstimated that it's not a surplus but an $80-billion deficit if you use real return bonds like other pensions do. If you look at the public accounts.... I don't have them; they haven't been printed, I think. Apparently, PSPC takes two weeks to print three books this size. managed to get her new book out on a day's notice, in two days, in two chapters, but the government takes two weeks to print a book like this. We don't actually have it here; it's only in PDF. I'd like to be able to look it up, but I can't. I'll explain what the discount rate is.
Getting back to what I was talking about, my concern is with the pensions. Ms. Boudreau explained that that was one of the delays. My belief is that if the pension surplus is recognized in this fiscal year, which started April 1 of this year, then that money would be recognized this year. It would not go into a previous year. Mr. Cannings brought that up, and my colleague from the Bloc brought up the pension as well. We certainly would like to ask questions but, of course, the government is blocking our ability to look at that.
The government is blocking our ability to look at the whole scandal of the finance minister getting turfed on a Friday but still being told that she had to come back and present the fall economic statement, take the fall for being $20 billion over and then take on a new role in cabinet, where she has no staff and no power, to make way for Mark Carney. I appreciate stepping up to take his role as well. Perhaps it will make it easier for him to access clam scam two or some other favours for the family, as he has done in the past. It makes you wonder.
The government knew Friday that was going to leave her role. We're in an economic crisis right now. We're into our sixth quarter in a row where GDP per capita has dropped, which means that the wealth generated per person in Canada is dropping. We're now at the same level we were in 2018, whereas the U.S.'s has gone up by I think 25%. We used to have an almost even GDP per capita in this country. We're now at about $55,000 U.S., and the U.S. has shot up to $81,000. Ireland, which people used to flee for economic reasons, as my great-grandparents did, now has a GDP per capita of over $100,000 U.S., and we're at $55,000, but I digress.
We are in this economic crisis of a collapsing economy. Unemployment is up to 6.8% or 6.9%. Who knows if it's going to break 7%. It's 10% in Toronto and 8% in Edmonton. Again, that's for six straight quarters.
Former Bank of Canada governor Mr. Poloz stated that we are in a recession. We're not in a technical recession of two straight quarters of declining GDP. He states that we are in a full-blown recession and the numbers show it. The only thing hiding it is the out-of-control immigration growth. Even the government has stated that they let it get out of control and they have to cut it back. They're flooding the country with new people when we don't have housing, hospitals or doctors for them, but it's propping up the economy and the GDP. They're hiding behind that and saying that we have the best economy in the G7.
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As the witnesses leave, I just want to yell at them a bit more. Merry Christmas. I appreciate your attempt to get the public accounts to us before Christmas.
Standing Order 106(4) does not allow meetings about the scandals. All it allows is a meeting to decide whether there will be meetings. Four members from different parties could sign the 106(4) request and we could come to Ottawa to be present at a meeting to discuss some of the scandals, such as the green slush fund and the finance minister getting fired right before the fall economic statement, with a $60-billion deficit that is causing the dollar to drop, causing uncertainty and, as the papers say, giving a gift to Trump in his fight against us with his tariffs, because it shows us as weak and chaotic. However, members of the government, with their coalition partners in the NDP, could just immediately move to adjourn the meeting, so this is a false outreach the government has put forward. They say, “Oh, you can have a 106(4) meeting anytime in January or February or during a break week”, but it's not really true.
As we saw years ago during other times we've had 106(4) meetings, we could get here and the government and their coalition partners could say they don't want to work on a break week. They do not want the committee looking into their scandals. They do not want a light shone on this disaster of a government.
I reject the argument that we could have a 106(4) meeting anytime. We can't. The reality is that the government could still simply move to adjourn or block any meeting, period, as we saw in the past on ArriveCAN.
It's unfortunate the Auditor General has left, because one of the issues she brought forward in her opinion.... It's not actually in the public accounts itself. You have to look online for her commentary. The public accounts, by the way, which I'm very disappointed in, have gone from an audited opinion to a propaganda piece for the government.
If you read some of it—I'm going to call it what it is—it's a lie. The government talks about the carbon tax being revenue-neutral, but it is not revenue-neutral. To say so is a lie. Here we have a government document signed by the comptroller general, signed by the Receiver General, signed off on and delivered by the Treasury Board and signed by the Auditor General, and it has editorial copy—not the numbers but government talking points. In this case specifically, it is a lie, because the carbon tax is not revenue-neutral. The carbon tax has GST. Alberta alone will be paying, I think, $100 million in GST just on the carbon tax.
On a straight, revenue-neutral basis, every penny collected from taxpayers would go to taxpayers. It does not. Some is diverted to government operations. I think a couple of years ago, $100 million was diverted to government operations. Some is diverted to small and medium enterprises. Therefore, again, it is not revenue-neutral. It is being used a bit as a slush fund.
I have it somewhere in my papers, and I hope to refer to it, but the OECD, in its description of “revenue-neutral”, says that it's taxation money that cannot be used to discriminate or push spending patterns in a certain way, which is exactly the point of the carbon tax. I'm not arguing what the intent of the carbon tax is, which is to drive up prices one way and perhaps force habits another way toward less carbon intensity—that is the whole point of the carbon tax—but the OECD states that such actions mean it is not revenue-neutral. Here we have the OECD basically saying that just the idea of a carbon tax is not revenue-neutral.
Of course, we had the oil carve-out for people from the wonderful province of New Brunswick, like our chair, and from other provinces in Atlantic Canada. The Liberal government cynically did a carve-out there, and told those in Alberta and Saskatchewan suffering through -40°C, “We're going to tax you extra to heat your homes. We're going to tax you more, despite the fact that you have some of the coldest temperatures in the country, but in areas where we're polling very poorly and are getting pressure from our MPs, because they're going to lose the next election, we are going to give out a carbon tax carve-out.” Again, it violates the whole neutrality of a carbon tax, and further violates the definition of the carbon tax as stated by the OECD.
Getting back to the carbon tax itself, I read this: “The federal pollution pricing system is revenue neutral”. This year, they've added a bit of a disclaimer: “over time for the federal government”.
Before I was interrupted by such silliness, I was saying, “The federal pollution pricing system is revenue neutral over time for the federal government.” Of course, in the House of Commons, repeatedly the government has stood up and said that it's revenue-neutral. In previous public accounts, it was revenue-neutral; now it's revenue-neutral but “over time”. Perhaps the budget will balance itself over time for the federal government. You can't have an accounting number being stated as a certainty “over time”. It's either revenue-neutral or not revenue-neutral. It is not.
I want to continue with other points from the public accounts. I'm happy to paraphrase them if I can't read the public accounts verbatim.
One thing they state is that the government will announce, starting in fiscal 2025, “the share of fuel charge proceeds returned to Indigenous governments”—which is fair, but that's a policy statement—“will increase from 1% to 2%”. I have to ask, where is this extra 100% increase for the proceeds coming from? I'm not criticizing the policy decision. They should actually back it up because there are areas where certain indigenous communities maybe require a much higher increase—those more rural and further north than perhaps southern ones. I'm thinking of the Nk'Mip first nation in B.C., which has phenomenal wines and a phenomenal hotel. B.C. is not part of the backstop—that's just an example—but I think they're a lot less affected by the cost of heating than perhaps McLeod Lake up by Fort McMurray.
I wish the government had actually backed that up by saying that they're going to increase them from 1% to 2% based on information or do it based on need, as opposed to saying, “We've increased it. Look how virtuous we are.” They should back that up. Again, where's that extra 1% coming from? It's coming from the general pool. Possibly that makes it non-revenue-neutral.
The public accounts further say, “As announced in Budget 2024, the government will return proceeds directly to small- and medium-sized businesses in provinces where the federal fuel charge is in place through the Canada Carbon Rebate for Small Businesses, a new refundable tax credit.” If you recall, this was announced several years ago. Where is this money coming from? If it's coming “in the year” or “for the year”, as the public accounts state, how can it be revenue-neutral? Where is the money they have collected since 2019? It's several billion dollars. It's not noted in the public accounts. It's not noted, from what I can see, in the fall economic statement either. Is it coming from general revenues?
It does nothing, of course, to address two issues. I wish our witnesses were here so we could ask about this. I wish I could ask our previous witnesses from EDC, which was administering the CEBA, but of course that was blocked by a Liberal guillotine motion. The government is going to return several billion dollars to small and medium enterprises to offset the carbon tax they had to pay, which is wonderful, but why so late? Also, where is the money coming from? What happened to all the companies that paid into it from 2019 to 2024 and have gone bankrupt or are in receivership? Will they be receiving the money?
For the CEBA money, are we going to have assurances that none of the carbon tax rebate will go to the many thousands of companies that have defrauded taxpayers? I think one out of every 11 businesses—9% of the 100,000 and some odd—that received CEBA money was ineligible. That's $3.5 billion so far that we know of. It's probably a lot more. The AG believes so as well. What assurances will we have that the government is not going to send carbon rebate cheques to companies that owe taxpayers that money? I wish I could ask, but of course we cannot.
When is the SME rollout going to be? Where is that money coming from? Is it solely from small and medium enterprises? Has it been put into a separate pot of money? We don't know.
One funny thing about the payment for the carbon tax rebate is that it used to be on a year-per-year basis so that money collected in a year was paid out in a year. Of course, now it's done quarterly, and with cash accounting, it's recorded when it's paid out. If I get a cheque on April 5, for example, that's five days into the new fiscal year, but it was money collected in the past year. That money collected will be accrued in one year, but the payout will be shown in the next.
I believe the government changed this a couple of years ago when we brought up in this very committee that it wasn't revenue-neutral and that money was being taken by the government to fund other programs within the government. It was right in the public accounts that they admitted it, and lo and behold, what happened in the next year? An offset was done. We asked Finance and the AG, “What money is coming in and what money is going out, to be rebated?” and they said, “Oh, we don't know. It's on a different calendar now.” It's collected one year and paid out in another, because, of course, it's paid out quarterly for money that was collected the previous year. Did they do that to hide it? There's Hanlon's razor: Don't attribute to malice that which is more attributable to incompetence. This time I'm really not sure.
As I mentioned, there's the oil heater carve-out for New Brunswick and other provinces. There's a huge carve-out for oil heating in Atlantic Canada. I used to live in Newfoundland, and our house was entirely electric baseboard heaters. When we were looking for housing, a lot of houses had oil heaters attached to them, or even buried.
The government said they were going to do a carve-out and not charge carbon tax on oil heating; therefore, there would be less money collected. It makes sense. It would also make sense that less money would be distributed, because it's revenue-neutral. Anything collected should be returned, but we have a finance document that states there won't be a reduction in rebates, so where's that money coming from?
Are the people in Alberta paying to heat their homes and paying a high carbon tax into general revenue subsidizing the Atlantic provinces? We asked that at the finance committee, and they stated, “No, it's only what is collected.” However, we have a statement saying there wouldn't be a reduction. You can't collect less tax and still pay that out, but apparently that's what the government is doing. I wish I could ask them.
Actually, here it is. I apologize. I had it right in front of me the whole time. I am going to read a quote from it. I'm not reading notes. I'm reading a quote from the OECD's “Fundamental principles of taxation”. Why would I have this? Well, why wouldn't I? As I mentioned last week, I have a copy of the Royal Bank of Scotland analysis on flow-throughs for pricing for energy costs, because who wouldn't have that study on their laptop?
Anyway, it reads:
A neutral tax will contribute to efficiency by ensuring that optimal allocation of the means of production is achieved. A distortion, and the corresponding deadweight loss, will occur when changes in price trigger different changes in supply and demand than would occur in the absence of tax. In this sense, neutrality also entails that the tax system raises revenue while minimising discrimination in favour of, or against, any particular economic choice.
That is the exact opposite of the carbon tax: “A distortion, and the corresponding deadweight loss, will occur when changes in price trigger different changes in supply and demand”.
I fully accept the carbon tax is meant to change demand. We jacked up the carbon tax, and another increase is coming April 1. We're going to increase it by, I think, another $15 a tonne. It's going to be another 11¢ a litre. Its intent is to change your choice of habits, or the demand for gasoline and home heating. The fact that taxpayers in Alberta are subsidizing folks in Atlantic Canada for heat pumps means that we are affecting choice and demand, because the demand in New Brunswick for heating oil will drop, and the demand for heat pumps should increase. That's part of the plan, but it violates the definition of revenue-neutral.
Here we have the Government of Canada pushing in public accounts, which is accounting.... You can't have a different opinion on the accounting books. One and one equals two. I have this argument all the time with my associate from , who I take great joy in teasing. He takes great joy in teasing me back, and we have a fun relationship that way.
Once in the House of Commons, he was going on about cuts to the CBSA, and I pulled out the public accounts from 2016 that showed the Liberal government cut spending to the CBSA. They cut spending in 2017 as well. The member for then got up and said that it wasn't really right that I was quoting statistics because these things aren't always true, and I thought, “Well, the public accounts don't lie, so someone is lying.”
The numbers do not lie. The revenue-neutrality is not true, yet the government puts it into the public accounts. They're lying in the public accounts, misleading parliamentarians in the public accounts and misleading Canadians in the public accounts.
We have a government that reopened the public accounts for the first time in history for political reasons. Apparently, this year they delayed the public accounts until the day before the House rose to hide that the deficit blew past the failed 's projections, her line in the sand.
Public accounts were signed off on December 9, but the original report had the first go-round, I understand, as early as September 30, to the Auditor General. We knew what the deficit was before it was tabled, but why didn't the government release the public accounts? I don't believe the false reason about pensions, because of Public Sector Accounting Board rules. The surplus was realized in the 2024-25 fiscal year, so it would have no bearing on the past year. There would be zero bearing, yet they trotted that out as a reason the public accounts were delayed.
I believe the government delayed the public accounts so that when we asked what the deficit was in November, they would not have to tell the truth, and when we asked in October, they would not have to reveal to Canadians that they blew past their line in the sand. I believe that is why, when we asked last week repeatedly what the deficit was, the government would not release that information.
It's very curious. One of the examples they used was $16 billion in contingent liabilities. I accept that, but I don't accept what has changed since the budget was released, as they could have forecast this very recently. It's not the only thing that's very different from the budget, which, again, was released not that long ago—just a few months ago—and from what's in the fall economic statement.
I'm sorry if I'm triggering people, but I want to read again from the public accounts of 2023-24. Remember, two years ago, we had the $40-billion line in the sand and had a commitment to a declining debt-to-GDP ratio. “The accumulated deficit (the difference between total liabilities and total assets), or federal debt, stood at $1,236.2 billion”—that's $1.236 trillion—“at March 31, 2024. The accumulated deficit-to-gross domestic product (GDP) ratio was 42.1%, up from 41.1% in the previous year.” It's up. “The government remains committed to its fiscal anchor of reducing the federal debt as a share of the economy over the medium term.” Again, it is up.
The government states it's committed to its “fiscal anchor”. Do you remember how many times the fired stated they were committed to their fiscal anchor of $40 billion? That, of course, turned out to be $61 billion, but they put that in the public accounts.
What else is in the public accounts for this year? Oh, here we go again. The accumulated debt was up from last year. The debt-to-GDP ratio was up from last year too. “The government remains committed to its fiscal anchor of reducing the federal debt”. That's the exact same wording as in the 2022-23 public accounts: “the government remains committed to its fiscal anchor of reducing the federal debt”. Again, the accumulated debt-to-GDP ratio was up.
Here we have the government in its public accounts admitting that it is higher—it went up—but apparently higher is lower, because when you have a fiscal framework, when you have a debt-to-GDP anchor and when you have a line in the sand, apparently you can lie about it. You can lie to Canadians about it. The accounting numbers don't change, but you can say that somehow down is up and left is right, and that, to the government, wrong is right.
That leads into public debt charges. “Public debt charges were up $12.3 billion, or 35.2%, largely reflecting an increase in the average effective interest rate on interest-bearing debt, offset in part by lower Consumer Price Index adjustments on Real Return Bonds.” If you remember, I talked about real return bonds and the public service pension plan. If real return bonds are dropping, the discount rate should not be so high, but I digress. As the once stated, “Pushing...our debt into bonds with a longer maturity ensures that Canada's debt servicing costs [remain low].” She repeated that in the House, yet the government stated that interest payments have gone up. How much have taxpayers lost because the government didn't invest in longer bonds, as they stated they would?
Argentina, despite their economic problems, was able to float a 100-year bond. There are 50-year bonds available, yet despite the government stating several times, both publicly in the previous economic fiscal update before was fired and in the House itself...we don't have to worry about debt charges or interest charges because we're buying long-term bonds.
If you recall, a couple years ago, Glen McGregor—I think he was with CTV at the time—asked the PM about the threat of very high servicing costs, and the looked condescendingly at him and said in that special tone of his, “Interest rates are at historic lows, Glen.” What happened? They didn't stay at a historic low; they went up, and we saw a 35% increase in interest payments.
I wish we had finance officials here so we could ask how much the out-of-control money printing led to the higher interest rates that led to the higher debt that somehow the government couldn't figure out. If I'm doing out-of-control money printing, I know I'm going to be doing it and I know it's going to cause inflation, you would think I would also know—like insider trading—to push our debt purchasing and bond issuing far into the future to lock in the lowest rate possible, but, of course, we didn't.
Just a couple of years ago, in 2022, the budget came out and.... Of course, the budget always forecasts costs four or five years into the future. In 2023-24, looking four years out, the government projected $152 billion in interest payments. This was not a long time ago. This was not 1990. This was a very short time ago. In the 2022 budget, we started out with $152 billion in interest payments, which is a hell of a lot.
The fiscal update that just came out—presented by some random Liberal cabinet minister because I guess wasn't available—had $212.8 billion in interest. Interest on the debt, over four years, has gone up by $60 billion since the budget produced two years ago. Think about that. This is how incompetent this government is. They were out $60 billion—basically a 40% higher interest rate to service the debt than just two years ago.
It came up in the supplementary estimates (A) in OGGO. They had $2 billion for higher interest rates. The supplementary estimates (A) come out shortly after the main estimates, which was shortly after the budget. How could you be out $2 billion? To be coming to Parliament just a couple months into the year saying you need $2 billion because a couple of months ago you misforecast what the interest payments were going to be.... Did anyone in this room or any of the five or six people watching think two years ago, “I'm going to be out that much”?
I'm going to work out the exact total. Bear with me for two seconds. They were out 39%. I'm sure the government is going to argue that things have changed and the economy is slowing, but the revenue increase over four years, as projected two years ago in the fiscal update, was 17% and the budget that I'm referring to shows 16%, so they're forecasting basically the same revenue but somehow misforecast it by 40%.
With all the brainiacs we have in finance and all the brainiacs we have at Treasury Board—a massive increase in the number of bodies—somehow they were out by $60 billion over a four-year period. That's for the interest payments. They were only out $20 billion on the deficit over a one-year period. That's almost the same in just interest payments. It's $60 billion. We will collect maybe $200 billion in GST, so they were out 30% of the value of the GST over four years, but just from two years ago.
This is not forecasting from the turn of the century, or perhaps the Chrétien-Martin era, the Stephen Harper era or even the early Bill Morneau era. This was the now-fired herself, two years ago, missing interest payments by $60 billion. That is probably the second-largest line in the budget after OAS. It's greater than what we're paying to provinces for health care support.
I hope people remember this when they're waiting in line for eight, 10 or 12 hours at their hospitals for care. The government, if they planned better, could have been spending money on health care transfers and hiring doctors instead of misforecasting $60 billion.
Mr. Cannings and Ms. Sinclair-Desgagné were talking about the public service pensions earlier. If I was a public service employee, knowing the same people are nominally in charge of them, I'd be scared silly. It's a good thing that taxpayers are on the hook for public sector pensions, so even though there is a surplus, it doesn't affect public servants one bit. It's the same as if there was a deficit. It would not affect pensions one bit because they're guaranteed by legislation. It's the same with the pre-2005 pensions, which were not funded separately, as post-2005 pensions are. Pre-2005 pensions were just funded out of, basically, general revenue.
If you look at the actuarial statement for the year, it shows the two funds separately. I think the 2005 one is underfunded by $7 billion, so that should be applied to post-2005, which technically would bring the surplus below the 25%.... If anything, the argument is, why is the government trying to take the $1.9 billion in surplus, and what are they taking it for? The argument shouldn't be that the surplus should go back to employees, with lower payments. There's one public servant. There's one taxpayer. There are two funds. One is unfunded. One is overfunded. Why don't they count the deficit against the surplus, as any of us would do?
If you have a bank account and a mortgage, you don't say, “I have $10,000 in the bank; look how rich I am” if you have a mortgage of $10 million. You count the two of them together—so do companies—but the government counts the two separately. To my colleagues Mr. Cannings and Ms. Sinclair-Desgagné, I think the questioning should not be what they're doing with their surplus, but how they're claiming it as a surplus. The government changed the law in 2019 for the budget. They changed what the surplus would be.
I wish we had officials here to explain why the 2005 unfunded portion is not being counted against the supposed surplus. What do they intend to do with that money, roll it in to reduce the deficit? Was Mark Carney going to step in and say that was 's $61-billion mistake, that we're in surplus and found $2 billion? I wish we could find out. We could find out next week in meetings or in two or three weeks in meetings, but we won't find out if the Liberals have their way.
I'll get back to the public service pension. I wish we could have a bit more transparency about that fund. As I mentioned, it doesn't actually own stocks and bonds, as a lot of us think it does. When people declare that the fund is up x per cent, it's based a bit on market capitalization and Kentucky windage, not a firm amount. The Auditor General referred to it in her notes in her last public accounts report, from last year. She had concerns about how they were working out the value, the valuations, and it was the same with how the CPP comes up with its funding.
Speaking of the CPP, I wish we had the officials here so we could ask, as I do each year, about how the government works out their lowest net GDP. When the government talks about their net GDP, they count the CPP money as an asset, but they don't count the liabilities—what they owe to grandma and grandpa. That will be me in five years; unfortunately I'm that old. They don't count the obligations, but they count the assets.
When the former and fired would stand in the House and say that we have the best net debt-to-GDP ratio in the G7, it was true under her formulation, but as the former deputy minister for finance said a couple of years ago, it uses “mental gymnastics” to come up with that number. The Fraser Institute uses these numbers, and the IMF says you can use them, but when you use OECD calculations, we're actually 22nd out of 29. We're the seventh-worst for debt-to-GDP ratio. What brings down our debt-to-GDP ratio is counting CPP.
I posed a question to Mr. Sabia, the deputy minister at the time, and his ADM, and said the only way you can count the CPP as an asset is if you have access to use it. Mr. Sabia started with, “Well, yes”, and then he caught himself because he did not want to say the truth, which is that you can only count the CPP asset, the money set aside for seniors.... It's paid for by seniors and companies, not paid for by the government. It's half paid for by taxpayers and half paid for by their companies. They pay into the fund. The only way you can count it for financial or accounting reasons, according to the IMF, is if the government can access the money for operational reasons.
That is the dirty secret about the government stating that its net debt-to-GDP ratio is the lowest in the G7. Yes, the U.S. is a basket case, but you can never count the U.S. out. It doesn't take much for it to flip things around like Bill Clinton did. It actually ran surpluses. It has the ability to gear up. When you look at Germany's numbers, I think it has a lower net debt-to-GDP ratio than us. It just announced $100 billion in tax cuts. It will be moving further ahead. We can claim we're the lowest only when you count the money for the CPP—I think it's $700 billion—but you don't count the liability.
Anyone watching at home who is collecting CPP, or perhaps whose parents are collecting CPP, should know this: When the government talks about having the lowest debt-to-GDP ratio, it's because they are counting not what's owed to our seniors, but what is set aside for seniors, knowing that they can only count it, in accounting lingo, if they have access to the CPP for operational reasons.
I don't think the government is going to do that. It would be suicide. I'm not saying the Liberals would, but they are lying to Canadians when they are saying we have the lowest debt-to-GDP ratio. If we compare it to the OECD, apples to apples, we are 22nd out of 29. We are the seventh worst for debt-to-GDP ratio.
I see the chair is motioning me.