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Good afternoon, everyone. I call this meeting to order.
Welcome to meeting number 87 of the House of Commons Standing Committee on Government Operations and Estimates—or, as the PBO refers to it, the mighty OGGO.
Pursuant to Standing Order 81(5) and the order of reference adopted by the House of Commons on Thursday, November 9, 2023, the committee is meeting on the study of the supplementary estimates (B) 2023-24.
This is a reminder not to put earpieces next to the microphones, as this causes feedback and potential injury to our valued translators.
Today we have the PBO's office for two hours with an opening statement from Mr. Giroux. We are going to take a short suspension at 4:30, and we will welcome in Mr. Bill Robson from the C.D. Howe Institute.
As required, I'm letting everyone know all audio tests for Mr. Robson have been done and were found satisfactory.
Mr. Giroux, welcome back again. The floor is yours.
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Thank you, Mr. Chair, and members of the committee. Thank you for the invitation to appear before you today.
We are pleased to be here to discuss our report on the supplementary estimates (B) for the fiscal year 2023-24, published on November 16, 2023. Joining me are Jill Giswold and Kaitlyn Vanderwees, key analysts on this report.
The government's supplementary estimates (B) for 2023-24 outlined $24.6 billion in incremental spending. Parliament's approval is required for $20.7 billion. Statutory authorities, for which the government has Parliament's approval to spend via other legislation, are forecast to increase by a total of $3.9 billion.
Close to 50%, or $10 billion, of the proposed voted expenditures in these supplementary estimates relate to the indigenous portfolio, with a significant portion for the negotiation and resolution of indigenous claims.
As for the forecasted increase in statutory authorities, it is largely driven by a $2-billion Canada health transfer top-up payment to the provinces and territories to help reduce backlogs and respond to urgent pressures, as announced by the government in June.
[Translation]
Roughly 11% of the proposed spending in the supplementary estimates, $2.8 billion, is for 74 Budget 2023 measures. This brings the total proposed spending to date for Budget 2023 initiatives to around $10 billion for 2023‑24.
Including these supplementary estimates, the total proposed year-to-date budgetary authorities for 2023‑24 are $480.5 billion, which represents a $37.2 billion, or 8.4%, increase compared with the estimates for the preceding year.
To support parliamentarians in their scrutiny of Budget 2023 implementation, we have prepared tracking tables that list all budget initiatives, the planned spending amounts and the corresponding legislative funding authority. These tables, which are available on our website, will be updated over the course of the year as the government brings forward its legislative agenda.
With that, we would be happy to answer all of your questions about our analysis of the supplementary estimates or any other report my office has produced.
Thank you.
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Thank you very much, Mr. Chair.
[Translation]
Thank you for being here today, Mr. Giroux. It's always good to see you. You've shared some very interesting testimony in the past.
[English]
Thank you for being here on the supplementary estimates. I'm always very interested to get your insight into things.
Obviously, what stands out is the total ask of another $24.6 billion in this time of economic crisis. The voted authorities are $20.7 billion of that $24.6 billion. It's a significant amount, but of course I'm mostly concerned about the $24.6 billion.
I know that you are no stranger to the fact that this committee has spent a significant amount of time looking at the amount this government has spent on external consultants. In fact, last spring we were seized with the McKinsey study because of the incredible amount of expenditures we saw on external consultants.
Unfortunately, your report indicates that the supplementary estimates provide an insight into the fact that this government continues to have a reliance on external consultants. In fact, you say in your report that the amount that they are planning to save is a paltry $500 million. This is just absolutely a drop in the bucket. Never mind the $15 billion that my counterpart, Anita Anand, the President of the Treasury Board promised to find by October 2, but couldn't.
You indicate in your report that the spending on the professional and special services continues to increase. You state that in 2023-24, it's “at a record $21.6 billion”. I'll repeat that number: $21.6 billion.
Why is this government incapable of letting go of its use of external consulting services? Why is there a need for them to spend these exorbitant amounts on external consultants, as you indicated in your report, with $21.6 billion?
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I don't think it's for me to explain exactly why the government needs that money.
I can say, though, that these professional services are used for a variety of purposes. For example, it can be on IT services that the government cannot do internally. It can also be for expertise that it doesn't have and it would not provide value for money to develop in-house. It can also be to provide some services to remote communities—for example, health services to communities.
If you have a specific question as to why the government keeps increasing its recourse to services, I would suggest that Minister Anand would probably be a better person to provide a justification. I would point out though, that the $500 million in freezing voting appropriations—the $500 million that was announced as part of the subsidy—is a small fraction of the lapse that took place last year for professional and special services. The government had booked $21.4 billion last year and lapsed $2.8 billion, or 12.9%. Freezing $500 million this year does not sound like a very binding exercise.
Another area of interest to all of us here, as well as to Canadians, is inflation.
We recently heard that inflation is down from 3.8% to 3.1%. I remember, when you were here last year, we asked you where you perceive we're going to be in 2024. You said we're going to be somewhere at the upper end of 1% to 3%. We're at 3.1%, and we still have a couple of months to go. I'm going to ask you the same question.
Where do you think we're going to be in 2024, based on the new estimates and what you heard in the fall economic statement?
I would like to submit that it's more about making sure that we are using the funds appropriately.
With about a minute to go, in your report on page 5, you talked about how by this time last year, we had spent about 60% of the projected total budget of 2022-23, as opposed to this year, for which we've spent only 40% of that budget.
Can you expand on that one?
Mr. Giroux, Ms. Vanderwees and Ms. Giswold, thank you for being here with us today.
Mr. Giroux, I noticed all kinds of things in the budget, but I'd like to start with one in particular.
I see that money is earmarked to catch up on annuities paid to first nations. The compensation for Treaty 8, which was signed between 1879 and 1921, has remained unchanged since the time of signature. For the Restoule settlement of the Robinson-Huron Treaty, there has been no increase since 1875.
Does this mean that no government since then has increased these budgets for first nations, and that they have all remained unchanged, which might also explain the state in which first nations find themselves, that is, lacking both drinking water and services?
What does the fact that there's been no increase mean? What are the consequences of that now, other than the fact that the government now has to quickly play catch‑up?
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I'm not in a position to comment on consequences or specific agreements.
During my career, I've worked on certain aspects of indigenous relations, and what I've learned is that these tend to be very complex relationships, especially when there's litigation and claims involved.
As such, the fact that compensation hasn't been increased in decades—centuries, even—reflects the fact that claims tend to be negotiated over a long period of time.
That doesn't mean services aren't being provided. Those are often two separate things. That said, I can't comment specifically on those two agreements because we don't have the details. All we have is the numbers in the supplementary estimates.
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That's a tricky question, too.
For example, if you look at agreements to settle specific claims or indigenous issues, itcan be tricky to put them in the main estimates because the final numbers aren't known at the time. It's hard to know how much that amount will be when the main estimates are being prepared. In contrast, for departmental operating budgets for things that aren't totally new, such as budget initiatives, it's harder to see why these measures and funds weren't included in the main estimates, which should be the default to make your work as parliamentarians easier.
That's why I can't tell you exactly how much should have been in there. That would involve a lot of judgment calls and a lot of information I don't have, including each department's and each organization's detailed operational information.
Today, your office released a calculation of what it would cost if the government were to extend the repayment deadline for CEBA loans from January 18, 2024, to December 31, 2024. Apparently, that extension would cost a little over $900 million.
When we asked the to extend the deadline to December 31, she said it would cost $2 billion, but it turns out it's a little over $900 million. That's a lot of money, but it's relatively good news.
Have you calculated the total economic cost and the costs related to all of the government supports, such as EI, that would be needed if tens of thousands of SMEs went bankrupt?
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What I find really alarming is that you just did a report looking at the CEBA loan and the cost of the CEBA loan. Right now, we have 250,000 small businesses that have taken out a CEBA loan, businesses that closed their doors to protect the public health of Canadians. They took a huge hit. Clearly, the refundable portion would not be able to absorb the hit they took, especially when it comes to the hospitality industry, where very few businesses have been able to make any sort of payment, even a small portion of that.
CFIB stats tell us that one-third of those people literally don't have the money and can't secure a loan. Would you not agree that, if the government cut more on outsourcing, they could afford the money that you've projected—$904 million—which is quite large in your prediction, given the fact that it doesn't account for businesses paying down their loans over that period. Could you speak a bit more about your report?
For me, I find it very difficult that these businesses are going to take another hit on the chin, yet we're paying this exorbitant amount of money for highly paid consultants who are making a profit. We are also learning that a lot of them are making commissions while they're subcontracting out in the pyramid scheme that they've designed, which is going on in a lot of these corporations.
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I would imagine that if they changed their commission set-up and put a cap on all commissions on outsourcing, they'd be able to cover the extension of the CEBA loan, which is something I am really disappointed the Liberals aren't supporting and the Conservatives have not been active on.
In terms of the indigenous services funding, you cite the increase, but we're hearing from indigenous communities about the cuts to indigenous languages, which are critically endangered. There is an urgent need for immediate action to ensure that these culturally rich languages are not lost forever.
Funding would allow indigenous communities to develop and implement intensive immersion programs that have proven effective for creating new high-level intermediate language speakers in just a few years. I'm hearing this from Tseshaht First Nation in my riding and from Ahousaht nation in my riding. These are languages that were stolen through residential schools.
Do you see anything in your report that...or the government's failing to fulfill its promises when it comes to reconciliation?
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Mr. Chair, it's a pleasure to be at the mighty OGGO, as I understand we are to refer to it.
Thank you for coming again. Welcome to your team. It's nice to see you. I expect we'll see you, hopefully, one more time at the finance committee before we break for the holidays.
I was looking at the supplementary estimates, and there were a couple of things I didn't see. I'm wondering if maybe I just missed them. I didn't see any money set aside for the new disabilities benefit, any money allocated for implementing pay equity legislation, or any adjustments or additional money set aside for the dental care cost overruns. I understand there are some accruing.
Am I mistaken in not seeing those?
There's another area that the government outlines in every budget. It's called the non-announced measures, and what happens in this provision is that, in every budget, the government is transparent about the changes in that account. For example, money comes into that account and money goes out of that account, and they're very light on the details about what it's for. It's understandable. There are some very legitimate reasons for which they would have some secrecy.
Parliamentarians don't know the total dollar value of the provision that's set aside in the fiscal framework. It's my understanding that you would have to go back, basically to the beginning of time, to add up and then track the changes in that account.
I'm wondering if you may be able to provide some assistance so that parliamentarians could understand the total amount of the government's provisioning for future expenditures that they haven't announced yet, because we just listed a few that have not been accounted for publicly, but pharmacare's nowhere to be seen. We have no idea whether the government's put aside enough money for the liabilities that it's created.
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Yes, we see expenditures related to old age security and the guaranteed income supplement rising as the population gets older, and with inflation, of course. However, the main driver is an aging population. We also see the need for expenditures in the health care sector to increase as the population ages.
However, given that, at the federal level, most of the government's expenditures consist of transfer payments to the provinces that are set in legislation and grow in line with inflation, or GDP growth. It is the same with old age security, which grows with population growth and inflation.
We see that the government's fiscal position, in the absence of further measures, should still be sustainable in an environment where interest rates would return to a more normal level.
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Accrual accounting, for people who may not be familiar with this method, recognizes the expenditures as they materialize. It's not necessarily when you write the cheque, but if you know that you owe amounts to a specific provider or you have a liability, for example, with respect to future benefits, you have to recognize that expenditure.
When you get an asset.... For example, when you know you are buying warships, you transfer cash and you get an asset. It doesn't affect the bottom line, the deficit, in the first year you transferred. You paid for the warship, but you got an asset, so it does not affect the deficit or the surplus.
Modified cash accounting means that, when you have to pay an amount, you have to seek funding, which is—
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I'll give you an economist's answer that you may not find entirely satisfactory.
The repercussions depend on the situation in which we find ourselves. In a full employment situation, business bankruptcies are painful for both the business and the employees, no doubt about it. Macroeconomically speaking, for the economy as a whole, there are losses, of course. However, as I said, if there's full employment, the affected employees can find new jobs within a reasonable period of time.
In contrast, if unemployment is higher than what would be normal in a dynamic economy, there may be consequences for those affected. They may face a longer period of unemployment than would be expected in a very dynamic economy with full employment.
Yes, it's possible and even probable that tens of thousands of bankruptcies would engender significant costs.
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That would be fabulous.
Shared Services Canada is asking for another $34 million to fund the next generation human resources and pay initiative, but there's no funding here for the Phoenix pay system.
In June, you shared that the Department of Finance told your office that hundreds of millions were allotted to fixing Phoenix, and that would fix it once and for all. Now I want to ask you if service delivery has improved. Clearly, it didn't. They're focusing on going after people for overpayments instead of paying the people who did work and did not get paid.
Almost a million transactions with financial implications are currently waiting in the pay centre's queue. What do you see is needed to fix this? What resources are needed to make sure everybody who's owed money gets paid?
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That's an interesting question that I did not expect.
I would say that this one is probably less concerning to me, because it involves a series of settlements for claims related to indigenous people, which are hard to predict in advance. Even if they were predictable, it would be disingenuous on the part of the government to reveal how much it's prepared to put on the table before everything is finalized.
From that perspective, it is normal and expected that funding for these agreements would find its way into supplementary estimates, and given that it's a significant portion of the supplementary estimates—the other part being, of course, budget initiatives—I've less concern with the amount in these supplementary estimates (B) than I would have if it were not related to these specific items.
I will try not to run over five minutes. Of course I'm happy to answer questions on anything else the C.D. Howe Institute has done, though I do want to say that, on the work I want to profile for you, the work on fiscal transparency, a big motivation is to really raise the profile of the work you're doing in this committee and similar work in Parliament. It's rather foundational to representative democracy that elected representatives should approve the Crown spending and taxation.
We do have a strong tradition in this regard in Canada. Most countries would trade places with us if they could. Particularly pertinent to what I'll say is that we do have well-developed public sector accounting standards, and along with the legislative auditors—the federal Auditor General and her colleagues across the country—we have strong mandates there and independence and capable staff.
The best way for me to cut into my opening remarks is to say that, notwithstanding these advantages, most people find that public finance is obscure. When I taught public finance, I quickly learned that most students just wanted to learn how to follow the money. These were smart, motivated students, but most of them did not really know how to get started on it. Many of you will have heard constituents expressing skepticism about not just how government manages their money but also the numbers they see and hear.
I think there are some in the group with backgrounds in municipal governments. You'll know that the situation at the local level is often quite bad. I've had more than one former municipal councillor say that they didn't understand their city's budgets but that, while they were in office, they hadn't wanted to admit that. That just shouldn't be. It seems to me that anybody who is motivated and who can add and subtract really ought to be able to make a start at finding the key numbers.
Certainly elected representatives need to be able to find them. In the case of elected representatives, timeliness is an important issue as well—before the fiscal year begins, early in the fiscal year and then after it closes.
This is essentially the goal of the institute's annual fiscal accountability report card. I think you have a copy available to you. I hope so. If not, I'll just say we're trying to put ourselves in the position of someone who is motivated and numerate but not necessarily expert, and who is possibly time-constrained, as a member of Parliament would be. How easy is it for that person to confidently find and identify the key numbers either at the beginning of the fiscal year to understand what's planned and approve it if necessary, or afterwards to understand what happened and correct any problems that we find?
In that report, we have a large table that summarizes the performance of the 14 senior governments using 16 individual criteria. I will not take you through that in detail. I'm happy to take questions. If you look across the top of the table, if you do have it in front of you, you'll quickly get an overview of what we think matters most to parliamentarians and citizens.
With respect to budgets, we have timeliness, particularly before or after the fiscal year has started. We ask about the placement and nature of the key numbers—consolidated revenue, expenses and surplus or deficits—consistent with public sector accounting standards. We look at whether the budget provides comparisons to actual estimated results for the year. Also, contingency reserves are something that came up earlier in the discussion.
I'll move over to the public accounts block of the table, in which a lot of what we ask about is similar: timing, placement of the key numbers, and comparison to budget. We ask if the legislative auditor gave an unqualified opinion and, if not, how much money was at stake. We also look at below-the-line adjustments.
I'll skip that now and close on the estimates block of the table. In that we also ask about timeliness, with higher marks if you're ahead of the beginning of the fiscal year and bonus points for main estimates presented simultaneously, where the federal government tried and had a misfire. We also ask whether the estimates are consistent with public sector accounting standards or clearly reconciled with them.
I'm sorry that Mr. Giroux did not have time to finish his comments, but we do think the estimates should contain numbers that are consistent with public sector accounting standards and accrual accounting so that parliamentarians can easily see whether or not what they're voting on is consistent with the framework they previously saw.
We've had a lot of excellent feedback on this from elected representatives, legislative auditors, members of public accounts committees and the Public Sector Accounting Board. I'd welcome thoughts from this group, both in this meeting and afterwards.
The final column is a new one this year. It is our attempt to capture the main estimates approval process. You will know more about this than I do.
Coming at it for the first time, we simply looked for published schedules and whether there was one available or not. The federal government got two out of three on this. Perhaps that's generous. Perhaps we should be looking at the proportion of dollar amounts actually voted, but that's our attempt to start it. I do welcome the feedback.
That concludes my opening remarks. I hope I was within time.
Again, I hope the C.D. Howe Institute's work in this area is helpful to you and helps to make some of these documents a little less daunting to your constituents and to Canadians in general.
Thank you for your time.
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Thank you very much, Chair.
Thank you very much, Mr. Robson, for joining us here today at the government operations committee. It's a pleasure for me to see you out of the Civitas environment. Again, welcome. It's really nice to have you here. Thank you so much.
You mentioned the main estimates. You mentioned the supplementary estimates. I'm going to add another document here. When the —my counterpart, as shadow minister for the Treasury Board—came into the House and was really proud to lay down this huge pile of documents, which were the supplementary estimates, she also presented with them the departmental reports.
Now, I recognize that a major theme in your report card is that the government should be significantly more proactive in its publication of financial documents and have greater transparency, yet in the most recent Treasury Board Secretariat departmental results report, it stated that it has “changed the cycle for updating departments' frameworks from every year to every third year.” It claims that this change will increase accountability and transparency.
Would you agree, Mr. Robson, that changing this reporting cycle from every year to every three years will increase government accountability?
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I'm not familiar with the change you just referred to, so I'm answering a little on the fly. I stand to be corrected if I'm misunderstanding what's behind this change.
In general, I would have thought it makes sense to have a tighter reporting cycle. If I go to some of the considerations that lie behind our report, we spent quite a bit of time talking about the speed with which different governments produce their financial statements.
Speed is a good thing. It's good for accountability. You don't want results out at a point when it sort of feels like old news and when, if there was a problem to be corrected, it might be too late to correct it. The speedy collection of information is valuable for all kinds of other reasons. If you're slow collecting your information for the year, you're naturally on your back foot when it comes to preparing your budget for the next year, because the natural place to start with many plans is to understand where you are and what just happened.
My quick reaction—and I admit it's not after having studied it—is to say it's better to have tighter reporting cycles. It's better to have more frequent reporting cycles. There's real merit in collecting and releasing information quickly.
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The federal government's performance in our report card has recently been very bad. The failure to produce a budget at all in 2020, as everyone in this group will know, was unprecedented. It was a dismaying thing to see happen, because it appears as though there weren't the kinds of consequences that one would hope for. World wars and other disasters have not prevented governments from presenting budgets.
Relative to the “F” that we awarded that year, the federal government's performance is improving. When we look ahead in the report, we're able to look at the most recent budget cycle to get a sense of how things are developing, and the federal government, in some respects, did improve its performance relative to where it had been.
I would love to see the federal government do more. I made a quick reference in passing in my opening remarks to the aborted attempt. It was part of the 2015 election platform, and for a fiscal policy wonk like me, my heart beat faster when I saw the commitment to release the estimates along with the budget. Even after having spoken at some length to Scott Brison about what happened then, I don't understand it.
As you can see, if you have the table in front of you and scan down, there's really no reason not to be able to do it. The Maritime provinces all do this. Clearly, if you release your budget well in advance of the fiscal year with the main estimates, then the work of the parliamentarians in understanding the fiscal framework and being able to scrutinize it before money starts getting spent at the beginning of the fiscal year is greater.
In the case of the federal government, since I'm on the topic of timeliness, I will also add the importance of federal transfers and other federal programs to the finances of other governments in the country, particularly the provincial and territorial governments. It really is incumbent on the federal government to get their numbers out early so that other governments have a chance to see them before they put their own plans in place.
It's kind of silly, if you look at the recent budget cycles, that we have a number of governments in the country.... New Brunswick is a standout. It always produces its budget well in advance at the beginning of the fiscal year. New Brunswick gets a lot of federal transfers. It's not easy for them, and it should be a lot easier. The federal budget should precede the New Brunswick budget so that they have a firmer basis for planning.
There are all kinds of reasons for the federal government to produce its budget and its estimates in a more timely way, and I'm not clear on why that isn't happening.
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Since you gave me the opening, I will say that in our report there is a column that looks at in-year updates, and I think those are good things. In fact, the federal government, with its monthly fiscal monitor, provides a service to people who want to keep tabs on what's happening. There are some accounting issues as you go month by month, reconciling it to the year.
I think the tradition of a fall economic statement is a very good one for everybody who's looking ahead to the spring budget. What it can do is give a sense of what happened in the economy, whether revenues are coming in more or less as projected and what's happening to the spending track.
What concerns me is that we live in a world of constant campaign communications and everybody feels there have to be announceables every day of the week, so that has caused fall economic statements—not just federal but in the provinces that issue them as well—to sometimes be a bit like mini-budgets, where you're getting all kinds of potential legislative changes introduced partway through the year. I think that's unfortunate. I think it jams the legislative process. It's much harder, similar to when you're considering estimates late in the year, to really feel confident that you understand how what you're being asked to vote on fits into the framework—or if it doesn't, what kind of a change it's going to make.
I guess I've implicitly criticized the fall economic statement for having introduced some policy initiatives, as opposed to just telling us how things are shaping up relative to what we expected. Of course, certain types of initiatives might well be necessary. If you have a natural disaster or if a war breaks out, it's natural that you're going to have to change your plans, and you want to put those into the statement so that people can understand it's not necessarily just the GDP growing more quickly or more slowly, or what have you.
In general, I think the fall economic statement is a good tradition, but I think we should also be very careful about not expecting it to be full of legislative changes and program changes that, as I say, jam the parliamentary process and undermine the credibility of the budgeting process at the beginning of the year. If you know that, after a few months, there's going to be a very significantly different fiscal plan, not because of circumstances beyond the government's control but because they changed their minds about what they're going to do, what that does is really cast a bit of existential doubt on the whole budget process.
It's supposed to be the foundation of representative government in the financial sense, whereby parliamentarians consider it, it's taken very seriously, it's voted on and governments stand or fall on it, but then a few months later, you might discover they're planning to do something quite different.
I like the institution, but I'm not sure we're using it wisely.
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The comparisons internationally are certainly favourable to Canada, so I agree with that.
I will point out that when you are netting assets of the Canada and the Quebec pension plans, or some of the big public sector pension plans, against the liabilities of governments when that money is already spoken for for other reasons, you're not misrepresenting the picture as it would appear to a foreigner, but you are overstating the degree to which the federal government might be able to service its obligations, so there are some nuances there.
Comparing ourselves to some of the fiscal problems abroad makes us look better, but sometimes I think that if the rest of the world is in tough fiscal shape.... Maybe the U.S. is in worse fiscal shape than us, and it certainly is, but when we're all trying to finance ourselves, it may be that they are a little more easily able to attract the financing.
When I step back to look at the big picture, I don't disagree with some of the specific comparisons that were made in the fiscal update, but I think it understated the economic and fiscal challenges in front of us. You'll recall that in the spring budget there was a projection from the OECD—as it happens, a former C.D. Howe Institute person who I think very highly of was one of the authors of that study, so it carried a bit more weight with me—showing Canada, in terms of—
It seems to me that bilingualism is often essential for francophones, but not for anglophones. That's a personal comment.
Let me go back to Mr. Giroux.
Earlier, you said that the current 2023‑24 budget really is a lot bigger than the most recent normal budget, the 2018‑19 one. Apparently, the increase is due to new programs being added and funding for certain programs being increased.
That piqued my curiosity because Quebec and the Canadian provinces have been complaining more and more about federal interference in areas under their jurisdiction. For example, the feds are negotiating directly with municipalities even though that is within the purview of Quebec and the Canadian provinces.
Could the growing number of programs interfering in jurisdictional areas that are clearly set out in the Constitution explain, in whole or in part, the bigger budget?
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I bet you can't, because we can't even get to the bottom of how much is actually going into commissions, despite the many questions we've asked here at this committee.
My colleague from Nunavut wrote to the yesterday to request an emergency debate regarding the government's upcoming failure to meet its deadline to close the infrastructure gap for indigenous peoples by 2030. We now know the infrastructure gap for indigenous communities is about $350 billion. Behind that number are communities across Canada where homes are overcrowded and unsafe, including in my riding. Schools are crumbling, and there are no functional ports. There are 28 communities still under long-term boil water advisories. The government promised there would be none by March 2021, but here we are in 2023, and there are Canadians who still don't have clean drinking water.
We all know that would never happen in Toronto or Vancouver. The government will not meet its deadline. Since 2016, it has spent less than 3% of what's needed to close the gap. Now, we see the government is planning on sunsetting many critical programs and services that indigenous peoples rely on. At the end of this fiscal year, funding for mental health and wellness will sunset. We're facing a decrease in funding for indigenous infrastructure projects, and for the health and safety of first nations on-reserve housing, water and community infrastructure.
Do you see any possibility that the infrastructure gap, which is really a quality of life gap, a health and safety gap, can be closed with only 3%, right now, of the necessary spending that's been allocated? Can you speak to the importance of that actually being closed and how we're going to get there?
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Thank you very much, Mr. Chair.
Welcome, Mr. Robson. It's a pleasure to have you here.
When you mentioned how your heart was skipping a beat about some changes in public accounting, I recalled that when I tell my wife how some things make me excited about public accounting, she tells me to get a life. Making no comments about the things that make you excited, it's nice to be in a room with others who get excited about the same things.
You did an interview yesterday where you said you were concerned that the government's budget numbers would deteriorate over the next short period. Could you expand on that briefly?
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It's partly a matter of concern about the economy. There's nothing unusual in that and nothing dramatically different from what the government showed in its numbers.
It's worth commenting quickly, though, on the reliability of the projections. One of the comments I made at the time of the fall economic statement was that we are now on the verge of the 2024-25 fiscal year, which was the final year of the projections in the government's fall economic statement in 2019. The projected spending has gone up by more than $100 billion over that period—so on average, every year, $25 billion more.
Now, partly that's inflation. We can debate the degree to which the inflation was actually caused by fiscal policy. I think it certainly bears some responsibility for it, so you don't get a total pass on that. The other thing that's happening is that we are getting fiscal frameworks delivered with very straightforward knowledge that there's more spending to come that's not in them.
I do have concerns along the lines of what I expressed earlier, that we're kind of being trained not to take these things seriously. If a fiscal framework is announced, a formal budget presented or a fall economic statement, and then days later there's an announcement of a significant new program that wasn't in it, then it kind of undermines the value of the process itself, and our hearts should all beat faster when that happens.
I mean it not just as flattery to this group when I say that the work of parliamentarians in forums like this is absolutely critical to holding governments to account. When you see a framework that's laid out as though we should take it seriously and you know there are significant spending programs that are not yet accounted for in it, you have to put up your hands and object and say you're not getting the numbers that matter.
The other thing I'll quickly say, if I haven't run out of time, is that we have the debt-to-GDP ratio as a very hard indicator. It's widely accepted as a measure of fiscal prudence. It should be going down and it's not. It's going up. That's just the wrong direction of a very basic number.
:
Thank you so much, Mr. Chair.
I want to pick up on a point that Mr. Robson raised about productivity.
Some folks talk about spending. I like to call it investment. What we have seen in the last three years is over $30 billion of foreign direct investment. Canada is number three in terms of attracting foreign direct investment. We've seen $30 billion of investment in the last three years in the clean-tech sector. You have incredibly innovative companies, global and world-class companies, setting up shop here in Canada.
Obviously there is Stellantis, and LG is building batteries in my hometown. LG is a world leader in battery manufacturing. There is Volkswagen in St. Thomas, which is, again, a multi-billion dollar investment. There is Northvolt in Quebec. Then you have a number of other companies up and down the supply chain like Umicore, which is going to build cathodes. There are POSCO and GM. Again, these are all incredibly innovative companies.
Do you see the potential, the opportunity, for productivity gains with these companies setting up shop in Canada, highly innovative companies, especially if it's through tech transfer or knowledge transfer? I'm just curious if you could maybe speak to that.
:
I tend to be an optimist when it comes to the ability of emerging technologies to let us all earn better livings in jobs that are safer, cleaner and more rewarding. I am fundamentally optimistic about that.
The trouble is that, when I look at Canada over the last number of years, I'm just not seeing the kind of investment performance here that we're seeing in the United States and in other OECD countries. When you compare investment per worker in Canada over the last few years to that in the United States and the OECD countries, we're falling behind. We had closed the gap with the United States considerably. We were never all the way there. They are a very high-investment economy.
In the middle of the last decade, we closed the gap entirely with the rest of the OECD, and lately it's off a lot. What's particularly concerning is that we're falling behind the United States most in the areas we would most like to see high investment rates in. You touched on the sectors. I'm not talking about the particular companies, but when it comes to machinery and equipment investment, the average Canadian worker is now getting less than 60¢ on the dollar per investment dollar enjoyed by the typical U.S. worker. The situation with respect to the OECD is a little better, but we're nowhere close to them.
When it comes to intellectual property products, which are software and the intangibles that a lot of us expect are really going to drive progress over the next little while, investment per worker in Canada is barely a quarter of what it is per worker in the United States. This is quite a recent development, so I'm encouraged when I hear—
:
The numbers on capital investment generally tell a totally different story to what you've just said. Canada is getting cents on the dollar per dollar invested per typical U.S. worker. In Switzerland, investment per worker is double what it is in Canada. We are simply not equipping our workers as well. I'm glad of the individual success stories, but when you look at the numbers across the board, they're not so encouraging.
I think Canada should be doing more to incent investment of various kinds. We do have to match the United States when it comes to depreciation. It's possible that we could do a lot better on some of the intangible investments if we had a special lower tax rate for intellectual property, a derived income, as a number of countries, including the United States, have done.
There are things we could be doing, but in general, right now, when I look at the numbers on investment, I see the capital stock falling per worker as it has now done for seven years. That has not happened since the 1930s and the Second World War. I do not think that the prospects for turning our performance in terms of real wage growth and living standards are good if we do not get those global investment numbers out.
I'm happy to hear about the individual stories, but when you tot it up across the board, there's something—
:
Thank you very much, Mr. Chair.
Mr. Giroux, over the past few months, there's been a lot of talk about consultants and the need to respect public servants and make better use of their expertise. Regarding the School of Public Service courses, it looks like the budget isn't changing despite the need to invest in training to improve public servants' knowledge and expertise. They have a lot already, but it's always good to invest in more.
People say that they want a better public service, that they want to support public servants' training and their interests, that they want to reduce the number of consultants, but then they don't invest in training those people. Do you see a disconnect there?
Is there money for training other than the School of Public Service budget?
:
Thank you very much, Mr. Chair. I'll see if I need to use all of my time, because I know you need some time at the end.
Mr. Robson, in the brief you sent our committee a couple of weeks ago, you did raise the concern about the average citizen's ability to follow the government's spending and how this actually has an impact on their ability to know how their tax dollars are being spent. We've also talked about the need for legislators to understand the financial statements. I did appreciate the report card when it came to the various provinces across our country, and I'm very pleased to see where my province of Saskatchewan landed on your report card.
I also want to refer back to something you said in your opening remarks. You indicated that Canada is in a good place in relation to some other countries, and Mr. Giroux, earlier in the meeting, agreed that it was feasible to ask for more detailed information from governments.
I'm going to pose a question for both of you. I'm just wondering if you could point us in the direction of any other jurisdictions we should be looking at for perhaps some best practices, or better practices than we are using today, to ensure we are getting the kind of information we need as legislators and our citizens actually know how their tax dollars are being spent.
:
Canada, being at the forefront when it comes to the quality of our public sector accounting standards, can't as easily import from abroad as we could if we were in a worse position. What I would respond by way of what I hope is a constructive answer to your question is to say that, if you look across the jurisdictions in Canada, if you look across the senior governments and in fact even the municipal governments.... I criticized their budgets, but when you look at their financial statements, you'll see something that you see in the good senior governments as well.
You will see that when they publish their results at the end of the year, it's the entire statement of operations. All of the revenue and all the expense is on one page, a clean audit opinion, and in just about every case they have the comparison to the budget. Ideally, it is not restated budget numbers, which are a bit of a thorn in the side of people who are trying to go back to the budget to see if they actually did what they said they were going to do. In every case, just about, for the major cities in Canada, you will see the financial statements so cleanly laid out that way and, as I say, they get clean audit opinions.
I am happy, since you mentioned Saskatchewan, to say that Saskatchewan and Alberta produce their public accounts within three months of the end of the fiscal year. There's no reason that other governments can't do the same thing.
If you like our table, if you simply look across the governments in each criterion and ask what would happen if we were able to level up across the governments.... If Yukon can put the key numbers on page 8 of its budget—I don't have it in front of me right now, but it's something like that—if they can do it, anybody can do it. Anybody could do it. The federal government could do it in the upcoming spring budget. We can do a lot simply by looking across the country.
Is there anything else, Mrs. Block?
I will note for my colleagues around the table that then minister Scott Brison, when we were studying the estimates about seven years ago, suggested that we actually go to Australia to study it, but we didn't.
We have Mr. Sousa, please, for five minutes.
Mr. Robson, it's good to see you again. It's been some time. I've always appreciated your input and engagement in preparations of provincial and federal budgets and economic forecasts. You are always a great help.
I want to acknowledge some of what you said today in regard to the fiscal stimulus and the counter-cyclical engagement of the government fiscal plan when it is going through times of crisis like we did with regard to the pandemic and our ability to sustain some of our spending in order to make certain it's by way of investment, like infrastructure—I think you captured that very well—or capital engagement, to ensure that we attract investment and growth in business and enable economic vibrancy.
Some of that input, of course, is via provincial matters. The provinces play a role as well as the federal government. The federal government has done quite a bit, but at the same time the provincial governments, especially during the pandemic, cut back quite a bit to the point that even prior to the pandemic a number of those provinces had their current ratings reduced. Here we have a federal government with a strong credit rating, and it has continued to maintain it. Some provincial governments have gone forward, and some revenue cuts were made. I'm thinking of Ontario, particularly, which I was part of and which reduced its credit rating. Consequently, it's been downgraded.
Mr. Robson, before I get into my real question, which is something separate around the pension plan, can you just reaffirm the direction and the priority that you feel is important for us to continue? Should we continue to invest in infrastructure and capital investment and secure, as my colleague has mentioned, Canada as a top destination of foreign direct investment?
:
I think the federal government has a strong role to play in investing in infrastructure under its jurisdiction. I would never quarrel with that. The topic of the federal government's spending in areas of provincial jurisdiction came up earlier. One of the things that does concern me is the federal government's expanding of its fiscal footprint. It is both crowding out the future revenue sources that the provinces might need and also exposing them to the cutbacks that may well occur at some point in the future when the federal government feels itself to be a little fiscally overextended, with interest payments growing and so on.
Having been a provincial finance minister, you know what it's like seeing the federal government not come through with the money you were expecting, or finding out that you are constrained in raising the revenues that you needed as a result of the federal government's already being in the field.
I would like to see the federal government spending smarter, and in a more focused way, because the provinces, in the long run, are the ones that are carrying the can when it comes to health care and many of the other infrastructure needs that the country has, so each in its lane.
:
I appreciate your comments in that regard. We want transparency by way of our transfers to those governments. Certainly, I always wanted that to be the case when we were looking at health transfers to ensure that we were held accountable as to where some of that spending would occur, and sometimes that doesn't necessarily happen. When you look at the Province of Ontario having a cap and trade system exempt from the carbon pricing and enabling another $1.2 billion or $1.5 billion in revenues, which was eliminated, that seems a little careless and a political decision.
The other question I want to get to, because I know we're out of time, is with regard to Alberta. You're big into the pension plans, and we've had a lot of debates, you and I, over the past years. They were very fruitful for me, because they were very enlightening. When Ontario was looking forward to putting the Ontario pension plan as an add-on to the CPP, we were able to initiate that and leverage the enhancement of the CPP, which I think was better for all of Canada, not just looking only at Ontario.
What is your take on Alberta putting at risk, if you see it as such—
:
Perhaps we need to, as Mr. Robson says, stay in our lane, but I appreciate your attempt.
We are done here. Before we excuse the witnesses in order to deal with a few minutes of committee business, I want to thank Mr. Giroux and his team, as always, for being with us. As I've mentioned before, you are like George Martin, the fifth Beatle. You're the extra member of OGGO. I truly appreciate that.
Mr. Robson, thank you for your time. We wish we could have seen you here in person, but perhaps another time.
:
As I suspect, we will lapse.
Mr. Majid Jowhari: I'm just bugging you.
The Chair: Are we fine with that, colleagues?
Some hon. members: Agreed.
The Chair: Wonderful.
If you recall, when we had Dalian and Coradix here, we had a fair number of requests for documents. One was from Mr. Genuis for documents he was asking the government to provide, but we kind of need to restate it for Dalian's benefit.
On October 26, the order for production of documents that was adopted was ambiguous as to who was tasked to provide the documents to the committee, Dalian or the government. It is the government, but Dalian is just looking for us to confirm that. They have some concerns about being held in contempt for not providing it. To do so, though, we need to discharge the original order and replace it with one that is more specific, indicating who we want to oblige with providing the committee with the documents.
The original motion was as follows:
That the committee send for all contracts between a government department, agency or Crown Corporations and GC Strategies, Dalian, or Coradix going back at least twelve years; and that the unredacted documents be submitted to the clerk of the committee in both official languages in three weeks.
I have proposed new wording here from our wonderful clerk:
That the order pertaining to sending for contracts between a government department, agency or Crown Corporation and GCstrategies, Dalian or Coradix, adopted by the committee on Thursday, October 26, 2023, be discharged and replaced with the following:
ORDERED: That the clerk of the committee inform government departments, agencies or Crown Corporations that the committee sends for a copy of all contracts between said departments, agencies or crown corporations and GCstrategies, Dalian or Coradix going back at least twelve years; and that the unredacted documents be submitted to the clerk of the committee in both official languages three weeks from Thursday, October 26, 2023.
It's the same motion. It's just specifying that it's the government in order to alleviate Dalian's concerns about responsibility.
Are we fine with that, colleagues?
I do need unanimous consent.
:
Thank you for your patience, colleagues. We are back in session.
Do we have consent for that please?
Some hon. members: Agreed.
The Chair: Thanks very much I appreciate that.
The second item orders for the production of documents. Dalian and Coradix are requesting that the committee turn all of their questions taken as notice during the meeting into an order for the production of documents. Instead of when we've asked them to provide items, Dalian is asking that there be an official motion from the committee. It's rather simple and straightforward—we have an official order of the committee. They are just requesting that.
It is ordered:
That the clerk of the committee inform Dalian/Coradix that the committee sends for a copy of the contract for the Botler AI task authorization; and that the documents be submitted to the clerk of the committee three weeks from Tuesday, October 31, 2023, by 12:00 p.m.
Again, this is a request from Dalian just for clarification. It changes that to an official order.
:
Yes. What it was originally was a request for documents: “Oh, would you table those?” “Yes, we will.” They're asking us to make an official order of the committee.
Are we fine with that?
Some hon. members: Agreed.
The Chair: Wonderful. Thanks very much.
Here is another one. It is ordered:
That the clerk of the committee inform Dalian/Coradix that the committee sends for a copy of the contracts that were signed by GC Strategies for the programs set by [CBSA] to fulfill their obligations under Bill C-65, otherwise known as the Botler project; and that the documents be submitted to the clerk of the committee three weeks from Tuesday, October 31, 2023, by 12:00 p.m.
Some hon. members: Agreed.
The Chair: Thank you very much.
This is the last one. No, I'm sorry. I have five.
It is ordered:
That the clerk of the committee inform Dalian/Coradix that the committee sends for a list of the government departments and agencies that Dalian and Coradix have had contracts with; and that the documents be submitted to the clerk of the committee three weeks from Tuesday, October 31, 2023, by 12:00 p.m.
:
Yes. Do we have consensus?
Some hon. members: Agreed.
The Chair: This one I'll read, but there's a tiny problem. It is ordered that the clerk of the committee inform Dalian and/or Coradix that the committee sends for (a) a copy of the number of joint ventures that Dalian and Coradix have gone into, and (b) a copy of how many joint ventures Dalian and Coradix have gone into that were not connected to the indigenous set-aside program; and that the documents be submitted to the clerk of the committee three weeks from Tuesday, October 31, 2023, by 12:00 p.m.
It's the same issue—a request from Dalian. Where there is a small issue is that it's not exactly an order for the production of documents. It's an order for them to provide an answer. Again, this is something that they asked for.